| Scott Garrett's new district consists of all of Sussex and Warren Counties as well as Passaic County sans Little Falls and Ringwood. Ringwood is the lone Passaic County town in Steve Rothman's new district, which also consists of most of Bergen County, except for Edgewater and several South Bergen towns, which along with all of Hudson County except Bayonne, make up Albio Sires' new district. Little Falls is the lone Passaic County town in Rodney Felinghuysen's new district, which also consists of all of Morris County, northeastern Somerset County, western Essex County, and New Providence and Summit in Union County.
I don't know if these districts are less or more competitive for the incumbents than the districts, which they currently represent, but I do know that with Congressman Bill Pascrell's Passaic County towns, including his hometown of Paterson, this district suddenly becomes a tossup between him (or possibly another Democrat, who we all know and love, whose town of Hawthorne has been taken out of Rothman's district and placed into this newly purple district).
What makes me think that Jeff Gardner could beat Bill Pascrell in a Democratic primary? Despite the fact that the bulk of the Democratic votes in this district would be found in Passaic County, where Pascrell has ruled politics for many years, I have a theory that Democrats in red counties tend to be more progressive than their peers in blue counties.
If I am right, I believe that Jeff could be the kind of candidate that wins the hearts and minds of the true-blue Democrats in Sussex and Warren County as well as those progressive Democrats in Passaic County who are looking for new leadership. If he could do this, then it would be him, and not Pascrell, who gets to take on Garrett in what would become the most competitive Congressional district in the state. In a Presidential election year with a hopefully reinvigoated President Barack Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket and ultra-high turnout, I predict that Jeff beats Garrett.
With a mixture of western, central, and eastern Essex County municipalities and Bayonne, Donald Payne's Congressional district remains a majority-minority district, but probably not Newark-centric enough for Payne to remain in the seat. With the support of progressives in suburban Essex, I believe that this congressional district is tailor-made for Newark Councilman, Ron Rice Jr..
With a combination of every Union County town except New Providence and Summit and Middlesex County towns, Woodbridge, Carteret, Perth Amboy, South Amboy, and Sayreville, I have also created a new, wide-open, likely Democratic congressional district that could pit many high-profile Democrats from both counties in what would be the most exciting Democratic congressional primary election our state has seen since Maryanne Connolly's epic battle with Michael LaPolla in 2000. The biggest question mark in this district would be whether Assembly Majority Leader and outgoing NJDSC Chair, Joe Cryan, would give up all of the power that he has accumulated in Trenton to be one of 435 in Washington, DC.
My prediction is that there are enough male candidates in the race, primarily representing the district's urban centers, that a female suburban candidate, Assemblywoman Linda Stender, backed by newly elected State Senator Jerry Green from Plainfield (see my legislative redistricting exercise) and the district's suburban-based progressives, who remember how hard she fought against Mike Ferguson and Leonard Lance in 2006 and 2008, could beat them all in the primary. And as long as she runs a better campaign than Martha Coakley, she should finally become our state's first Democratic Congresswoman.
Frank Pallone's congressional district doesn't change dramatically, but it does become much more Middlesex County-centric, consisting of the rest of the county not included in the district described above and the Monmouth County coastal towns of Aberdeen, Keyport, Hazlet, Keansburg, Union Beach, Middletown, Atlantic Highlands, Highlands, Sea Bright, Monmouth Beach, and Long Branch. Assuming that Pallone can survive a Middlesex County-based primary challenger, he should be as safe in this district as he is in his current district.
The same is not necessarily true for Rush Holt. Despite being as progressive if not moreso than Pallone (proponents of each can argue amongst yourselves), Holt made a deal with the devil (aka Mike Ferguson) when the state was last redistricted to make both of their districts safer. For this reason, and because it makes sense geographically, I have created a very competitive district that both Holt and Leonard Lance will share, containing most of Mercer (except Washington Township, which along with the rest of Monmouth County that is not in Pallone's district and half of Burlington County, makes up Chris Smith's new district) and Somerset (except the towns that are in Frelinghuysen's district) Counties and all of Hunterdon County.
I am not going to go into nearly as much detail about the last three districts, because I don't expect that they will impact the status quo dramatically. Frank LoBiondo's new district consists of all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland, and Salem Counties and half of Gloucester County. Rob Andrews will represent the other half of Gloucester County, all of Camden County (including John Adler's hometown of Cherry Hill), and Evesham, Palmyra, and Riverton in Burlington County.
Whomever beats John Adler this year will most likely represent the last district, which consists of the remaining 40% of Burlington County and all of Ocean County. If I am wrong about John Adler losing this year, then this will be an open seat with as exciting a Republican primary as the Democratic primary in the new Union County-centric open district described above, and Adler and Andrews will have to go head-to-head in a Democratic primary of their own.
The net result of these new districts would be 6 Democratic-leaning districts, one of which would be an open district and another could provide a contested primary between two incumbents, 4 Republican-leaning districts, one of which could be an open district, and two swing districts, each represented by two incumbents; one from each party.
If the Democrats enter 2011 with a 7-6 advantage as I predict they will, it is possible that their advantage could increase to as much as 8-4 two years later or could decrease to no worse than a 6-6 split. If nothing else, 2012 could provide us with a lot of drama if this congressional district map were considered, as if it won't have enough as is with the Presidential election and Bob Menendez's re-election.
That said, any comments, insights, and opinions would be greatly appreciated. |
