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Fun with Redistricting

by: Bertin Lefkovic

Tue Jan 19, 2010 at 07:17:06 PM EST



Less than a year from now, data taken from the 2010 census is going to provide the major political players in the state with the information that they will need to produce our state's congressional and legislative district maps, which will play a major role in determining who will be representing us at the state and federal level over the next ten years.

Whether one calls it redistricting or gerrymandering, it is a process that has historically been an inside baseball game with virtually no public input and scrutiny.  It is my belief that this is something that the progressive community should be engaged with and about which it should have an opinion.

Recently, a friend sent me a link to Dave's Redistricting App, which is an online tool that allows us to use existing data to construct our own congressional and legislative maps.

Using this tool, I was able to redistrict New Jersey's 40 legislative districts as I thought they should be.  If you're interested in taking a look at my new districts, they are below the fold.

Bertin Lefkovic :: Fun with Redistricting
The tool used data that had our state's population at over 8.6 million people (current estimates are 8.9 million), which allows for an average district size of 217,000 people and districts that are no larger or smaller than 10% of that number.

The tool did not provide partisan performance data, but it did have some basic racial percentages, which I provide below as the percentage of the district's voters who are white, which I believe can prove some, albeit very limited insight into the partisan makeup of a district.

My best guess at extrapolating partisan performance from a district's racial makeup is that in most cases, 60% of white voters tend to vote Republican, while 90% of non-white voters tend to vote Democratic  with the exception being districts possessing large Jewish, LGBT, and working-class populations, where white voters probably skew closer to 50%.  If anybody with access to partisan performance data wants to comment on whether these districts are more competitive, less competive, more Democratic-friendly, less Democratic-friendly, etc., it would be greatly appreciated.

One thing that I tried to do as much as possible is to limit the amount of districts that were split amongst more than one county, and there are no districts that are split amongst three counties.  In some cases, I was able to put entire counties within the confines of a single district.  Only one city, Newark, had to be broken up and even there, I was able to keep the wards intact.  Jersey City is its own legislative district.

District 1 - Cape May County (all); Longport, Margate, Ventnor, Egg Harbor Township, Linwood, Northfield, Pleantville, Hamilton Township, Mullica Township, and Egg Harbor City (Atlantic County) - 81% - 221,057

District 2 - Cumberland and Salem Counties (all) - 60% - 222,971

District 3 - Somers Point, Corbin City, Estell Manor, Weymouth Township, Buena, Buena Vista Township, Folsom, and Hammonton (Atlantic County); Monroe Township, Franklin Township, Glassboro, Elk Township, Clayton, Harrison Township, South Harrison Township, Woolwich Township, Logan Township, Greenwich Township, East Greenwhich Township, Paulsboro, Mantua Township, and Pitman (Gloucester County) - 81% - 200,421

District 4 - Atlantic City, Absecon, Brigantine, Galloway Township, and Port Republic (Atlantic County); Little Egg Harbor Township, Long Beach Township, Eagleswood Township, Beach Haven, Ship Bottom, Surf City, Harvey Cedars, Barnegat Light, Barnegat Township, Stafford Township, Berkeley Township, South Toms River, Ocean Gate, Pine Beach, and Beachwood (Ocean County) - 73% - 233,937

District 5 - Lacey Township, Manchester Township, Plumstead Township, Jackson Township, and Lakewood Township (Atlantic County) - 81% - 212,667

District 6 - Dover Township, Brick Township, Bay Head, Point Pleasant, and Point Pleasant Beach (Ocean County) - 90% - 223,699

District 7 - Washington Township, Deptford Township, West Deptford Township, Wenonah, Westville, National Park, and Woodbury (Gloucester County); Gloucester Township and Gloucester (Camden County) - 83% - 205,675

District 8 - Camden, Pennsauken Township, Merchantville, Haddon Township, Haddon Haddon Heights, Haddonfield, Audubon, Audubon Park, Oaklyn, Mount Ephraim, Brooklawn, Bellmawr, Runnemede, and Barrington (Camden County) - 47% - 213,505

District 9 - Collingswood, Cherry Hill, Tavistock, Lawnside, Magnolia, Hi-Nella, Stratford, Somerdale, Voorhees, Gibbsboro, Lindenwold, Pine Hill, Pine Valley, Clementon, and Winslow Township (Camden County) - 70% - 208,982

[NOTE] It was not clear from the tool's map whether Collingswood actually shared a border with Cherry Hill or not, but I am hoping that it does as I did not want the LGBT community there to be stuck with someone like Donald Norcross as their State Senator.  Yes, James Beach is not great either, but I think that progressives would have a better chance of unseating him in a primary election than Norcross.

District 10 - Waterford Township and Berlin Township (Camden), Bass River Township, Washington Township, Woodland Township, Tabernacle Township, Shamong Township, Pemberton Township, Medford Township, Evesham Township, Mount Laurel Township, Hainesport Township, Lumberton Township, Maple Shade Township, and Moorestown Township (Burlington  County) - 86% - 205,655

District 11 - Palmyra, Cinnaminson Township, Riverside Township, Delanco Township, Willingboro Township, Edgewater Park, Beverly, Burlington Township, Burlington, Westampton Township, Eastampton Township, Southampton Township, and Pemberton Township (Burlington County) - 61% - 201,915

District 12 - New Hanover Township, North Hanover Township, Chesterfield Township, Springfield Township, Florence Township, Bordentown Township, and Bordentown (Burlington County); Hamilton Township, Lawrence Township, Washington Township, East Windsor Township, and Hightstown (Mercer County) - 72% - 218,567

[NOTE] I went out of my way here to pull Shirley Turner's Lawrence Township away from Princeton and Trenton and put it with Bill Baroni's Hamilton Township.

District 13 - Trenton, Ewing Township, Hopewell Township, Hopewell, Princeton Township, Princeton, and West Windsor Boro (Mercer County) - 46% - 205,401

District 14 - Allentown, Upper Freehold Township, Millstone Township, Manalapan Township, Marlboro Township, Freehold Township, Freehold, Howell Township, Colts Neck Township, Tinton Falls, and Shrewsbury (Monmouth County) - 80% - 222,616

District 15 - Wall Township, Brielle, Manasquan, Sea Girt, Spring Lake, South Belmar, Belmar, Neptune Township, Avon-by-the-Sea, Bradley Beach, Asbury Park, Loch Arbour, Deal, Ocean Township, Interlaken, Allenhurst, Eatontown, Long Branch, West Long Branch, and Oceanport (Monmouth County) - 70% - 210,416

District 16 - Aberdeen Township, Matawan, Keyport, Hazlet Township, Union Beach, Keansburg, Middletown Township, Highlands, Atlantic Highlands, Monmouth Beach, Sea Bright, Rumson, Fair Haven, Red Bank, Little Silver, and Holmdel Township (Monmouth County) - 80% - 209,416

District 17 - Sayreville, South River, South Amboy, Perth Amboy, Old Bridge Township, Spotswood, Helmetta, Cranbury Township, and Monroe Township (Middlesex County) - 57% - 225,866

District 18 - New Brunswick, North Brunswick Township, South Brunswick Township, East Brunswick Township, Milltown, and Plainsboro Township (Middlesex County) - 49% - 209,009

District 19 - Edison Township, Metuchen, South Plainfield, Piscataway Township, Middlesex, and Dunellen (Middlesex County) - 50% - 231,656

District 20 - Woodbridge Township and Carteret (Middlesex County); Rahway, Linden, Roselle, and Roselle Park (Union County) - 51% - 222,002

District 21 - Elizabeth, Hillside Township, Union Township, and Kenilworth (Union County) - 32% - 216,792

District 22 - Berkeley Heights Township, New Providence, Summit, Springfield Township, Mountainside, Westfield, Scotch Plains Township, Fanwood, Plainfield, Clark Township, Cranford Township, and Winfield Township (Union County) - 64% - 207,026

District 23 - Morris Township, Morristown, Long Hill Township, Harding Township, Chatham Township, and Chatham (Morris County); Watchung, Warren Township, North Plainfield, Green Brook Township, Bound Brook, South Bound Brook, Bridgewater Township, Somerville, Raritan, and Manville (Somerset County) - 67% - 221,165

District 24 - Madison, Florham Park, Hanover Township, East Hanover Township, Parsippany-Troy Hills Township, Denville Township, Mountain Lakes, Boonton Township, Boonton, Montville Township, Kinnelon, Butler, Riverdale, Pequannock Township, and Lincoln Park (Morris County) - 78% - 209,600

District 25 - Rockaway Township, Jefferson Township, Roxbury Township, Randolph Township, Mine Hill Township, Victory Gardens, Wharton, Mount Olive Township, Washington Township, Chester Township, Mendham Township, and Mendham (Morris County) - 76% - 204, 124

District 26 - Lambertville, West Amwell Township, East Amwell Township, Raritan Township, and Flemington (Hunterdon County); Franklin Township, Montgomery Township, Hillsborough Township, Branchburg Township, Bedminster Township, Far Hills, Peapack and Gladstone, Bernards Township, and Bernardsville (Somerset County) - 70% - 214,223

District 27 - Delaware Township, Kingwood Township, Alexandria Township, Holland Township, Union Township, Franklin Township, Bethlehem Township, Glen Gardner, Hampton, Lebanon Township, Lebanon, Tewksbury Township, Califon, Readington Township, Clinton Township, and Clinton (Hunterdon County); Warren County (all) - 87% - 201,906

District 28 - West Milford Township, Ringwood, Bloomingdale, Wanaque, and Pompton Lakes (Passaic County) and Sussex County (all) - 89% - 213,925

District 29 - Wayne Township, Little Falls Township, Clifton, and Passaic (Passaic County) - 53%

District 30 - Paterson, West Paterson, Totowa, Hawthorne, Prospect Park, Haledon, and North Haledon (Passaic County) - 29% - 214,877

District 31 - Fairfield Township, North Caldwell Township, West Caldwell, Caldwell, Essex Fells, Roseland, Cedar Grove Township, Verona Township, West Orange Township, South Orange Village Township, Orange, Livingston Township, Millburn Township, and Maplewood Township (Essex County) - 64% - 220,096

District 32 - Montclair Township, Glen Ridge, East Orange, Bloomfield Township, Belleville Township, and Nutley Township (Essex County) - 44% - 217,475

District 33 - Irvington and Newark - West, Central, and North Wards (Essex County) - 7% - 227,209

District 34 - Newark - East and South Wards (Essex County); East Newark, Bayonne, Harrison, Kearny, and Secaucus (Hudson County) - 45% - 235,909

District 35 - Jersey City (Hudson County) - 23% - 235, 911

District 36 - Hoboken, Weehawken Township, West New York, Guttenberg, North Bergen Township, and Union City (Hudson County) - 30% - 229,494

District 37 - Teaneck Township, Tenafly, Englewood, Englewood Cliffs, Fort Lee, Edgewater, Cliffside Park, Fairview, Palisades Park, Bogota, and Leonia (Bergen County) - 45% - 216,511

District 38 - Ridgefield, Ridgefield Park, Little Ferry, Moonachie, Wood-Ridge, Carlstadt, Wallington, East Rutherford, Rutherford, Lyndhurst Township, North Arlington, Lodi, Saddle Brook Township, Maywood, Rochelle Park Township, Elmwood Park, and Garfield (Bergen County) - 67% - 223,867

District 39 - Hasbrouck Heights, Teterboro, Hackensack, South Hackensack, Bergenfield, Dumont, New Milford, River Edge, Oradell, Paramus, Ridgewood, Glen Rock, and Fair Lawn (Bergen County) - 62% - 232,222

District 40 - Mahwah Township, Oakland, Wyckoff Township, Allendale, Ramsey, Saddle River, Upper Saddle River, Franklin Lakes, Waldwick, Ho-Ho-Kus, Montvale, Park Ridge, Woodcliff Lake, Hillsdale, Washington Township, Westwood, Old Tappan, Northvale, Norwood, Alpine, Cresskill, Demarest, Closter, River Vale Township, Harrington Park, Emerson, and Haworth (Bergen County) - 82% - 222,240

If this turns out to be as fun and inspiring an exercise as I hope that it will be, I will do the same thing with the congressional districts, taking to consideration the likelihood that New Jersey will have one less district, beginning in 2012.

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