Despite 3.5% increase in population, NJ still on track to lose a seat

by: Jason Springer

Thu Dec 24, 2009 at 03:00:00 PM EST

The U.S. population increased by just under 1% and grew to 307 million in 2009 according to USA Today, experiencing the slowest growth rate for the past decade.

In many areas, births drove population growth, rather than the arrival of new residents. A demographer quoted in the USA Today story said this was a sign of the economy:

"People are staying put. They're just not moving,"

With all the talk of doom and gloom with people moving out of state, New Jersey saw an increase in population of 3.5% over last year giving us a population of just over 8.7 million people.

Despite the increase in population, we're still on track to lose a House seat:

That would increase the size of each district from 647,258 in 2002 to 725,645 in 2012. Unless someone retires, New Jersey will either see an incumbent vs. incumbent general election, or an incumbent vs. incumbent primary.

That would bring us to 12 seats in Congress, down from 15 since 1982:

In 1992, when New Jersey went from 14 seats to 13, two incumbents were put in the same district. A primary was avoided when Bernard Dwyer (D-Edison) retired instead of facing Frank Pallone (D-Long Branch) in the Democratic primary. New Jersey went from 15 seats to 14 in 1982, but the district represented by Millicent Fenwick (R-Bernardsville) was eliminated when she entered the race for U.S. Senator.

This doesn't mean we will definitely lose a seat, but if things continue on this course we will. There are many scenarios that could come into play if that happens. You can view the full population estimates from the Census bureau here.

Jason Springer :: Despite 3.5% increase in population, NJ still on track to lose a seat

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Despite 3.5% increase in population, NJ still on track to lose a seat | 1 comments

Adler is most likely history (0.00 / 0)

As polarized as the Democratic and Republican parties have become, if the last redistricting can provide us with any model for what to expect from the pre-2012 redistricting, NJ Democrats and Republicans know how to work together to preserve the status quo.

Prior to 2002, Mike Ferguson's and Rush Holt's districts went from being the most competitive in the state to being quite safe as Ferguson traded Democratic towns to Holt for Republican towns.

What happens prior to 2012 will most likely be determined by who wins in 2010, particularly in Adler's district. If Adler survives, I think that he will most likely find his home town of Cherry Hill, the only Camden County town in the 3rd District moved into Rob Andrews 1st District. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Adler could win a primary against Andrews, but his conservative voting record of late will make that very hard.

If Adler loses, I still predict that Cherry Hill will be moved into the 1st district with the rest of the district being absorbed by LoBiondo's district and Smith's district with the freshman Republican Congressman being forced to run against one of them, depending on where he/she lives, although it is entirely possible that by then, Chris Smith will be ready to retire and will step aside for him/her, particularly if it is Jon Runyan.

Either way, it seems very unlikely that John Adler will still be in the House of Representatives come January 2013.

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Fri Dec 25, 2009 at 17:07:48 PM UTC