Pollster Discusses Marriage Equality

by: Hopeful

Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 06:14:20 PM EST

At a gut level, the public is divided. As a policy issue, most people don't really care one way or the other.

He goes through the evidence that both sides have mid-to-upper 40s but that it's just not a priority for many people. He makes a strong argument rejecting the claim that marriage must be decided by a referendum:

The public should absolutely have the final say on any situation that involves state borrowing. I also think a constitutional convention - where the public gives a straight up or down vote on the outcome - is worth serious consideration in New Jersey right now.

But the founders of our country - or at least James Madison in the Federalist Papers - were fairly clear that any issue affecting the rights of a minority should be determined within a deliberative setting. And general elections almost never meet the criterion of being deliberative - as anyone who followed this year's vacuous gubernatorial race will attest.

Also interesting is his view -- as a political scientist, statistician, and pollster -- of the panel that found that civil unions are not working:

I actually met with the Commission in August 2007 to discuss a potential study on civil unions. Ideally, the research would have interviewed a sample of civil union couples and a matching sample of married couples to see if the former were systematically experiencing any roadblocks that the latter were not. For various reasons (costs, logistics), the study was never conducted.

Though cost is certainly a concern anything that would reveal the truth about civil unions' failures more convincingly should be considered -- though, as Murray notes, opponents may not care what the truth is.

He finally goes on to ask why the state recognizes marriage at all? This related point that perhaps states should not be in marriage business at all has often been debated on liberal blogs (DBK raised it here today). Personally I don't care for that argument, but rather than discuss it here, I guess I'll have to write that "Why I Support Marriage Equality" post tomorrow after all.