Last chance for marriage equality

this was originally posted (0.00 / 0)

at DKos, so any references that seem a bit odd are because of the tone from posting it there first as opposed to here first....

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 01:26:12 AM UTC

roll the dice on a referendum (0.00 / 0)

If Paul Sarlo can prevent marriage equality legislation from being considered by the Judiciary Committee AND Dick Codey needs THREE OR FOUR REPUBLICANS to get a bill passed, I believe that progressives need to join forces with arch-conservatives to write a winner-takes-all bill, putting the issue before the voters in a 2011 referendum.

The bill would have to be in the form of a constitutional amendment, either establishing marriage equality or banning it, so that no future legislature would be able to easily overturn the will of the people.

Undoubtedly, this is a risky strategy and if they are unable to get a bill passed during lame duck, proponents of marriage equality would most likely prefer to wait four more years to have a chance to get a bill passed, especially since DOMA has yet to be overturned legislatively at the federal level and may not be much sooner than that, than risk having the state's Constitution amended negatively, which would most likely represent the end of the marriage equality movement in NJ.

That said, despite the results of the 2009 election, I still have faith in the voters of NJ to do the right thing if properly mobilized and motivated, and while 2011 will be a very low turnout election cycle, I believe that can work in our favor just as much as it would normally work in favor of the Republicans.

I also believe that Christie would sign a winner-takes-all bill, because he would believe that it would give Republicans a better chance to regain control of the State Senate and State Assembly in 2011, which would be true if progressives were not successful at mobilizing and motivating pro-marriage equality voters to get out and vote, but I believe that given the chance, we would be successful.

I also believe that 2011 could be the year that progressives could run primary challengers against establishment Democrats, but the only way that they will be able to do that is if they and progressive leaders ignore the 2010 election cycle and focus all of its time, money, and effort on 2011.

I am sure that there are plenty of people here who will disagree with me about this, but IMHO, there is not a single Congressional district where progressives can make a difference.

CD3 is the only district that will be contested and I do not believe that there is a chance in hell that John Adler can hold onto the district with 1998 turnout levels.  Even if Adler deserved the enthusiastic support of progressives, which he doesn't, it wouldn't be enough for him to win re-election.

Unless something changes the political dynamic in this country, 2010 is going to be a roadkill election year, probably not to the degree that 1994 was and it will be far worse in other parts of the country than in NJ where we will lose one Democratic-held seat.

2011 is going to be the year that progressives can finally make a difference in NJ, but only if we can ignore the carnage on the side of the road in 2010 and remain focused on the destination.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 01:57:27 AM UTC

The votes in the JUDICIARY COMMITTEE are "there" (4.00 / 4)

Senator Paul Sarlo made a personal commitment to me to post the Marriage Equality Bill.  There are enough bi-partisan votes on the Judiciary Committee to move this bill out.  I expect that Sen. Sarlo will live up to his commitment!

Senator Loretta Weinberg

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by: Senator Loretta Weinberg @ Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 05:41:51 AM UTC

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I hope you are right (0.00 / 0)

Sen. Weinberg about Sen. Sarlo's commitment to post the Mairriage Equality Bill.

northjersey.com reports that Sarlo, while visiting Xanadu with Gov.-elect Christie said,

State Sen. Paul Sarlo said he would not bring up the (Marriage Equality) bill in the Judiciary Committee he chairs unless enough votes exist to pass it on to the full Senate. The Bergen County Democrat said that, currently, the bill does not have sufficient support in the committee for a recommendation to the Senate.

"Today, as I stand here, we do not have the votes in the Judiciary Committee," Sarlo said after he and Gov.-elect Chris Christie toured the Xanadu entertainment complex under construction in the Meadowlands. "Until somebody can demonstrate that we have the votes in the Judiciary Committee, it will not be posted.

http://www.northjersey.com/new...

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by: SmartyJones @ Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 15:08:47 PM UTC

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Zack Fink had more on this (0.00 / 0)

over at his blog:

However, Reached late Friday Senator Ray Lesniak said he "respectfully disagrees" with Sarlo. Lesniak believes there should at least be an up or down vote on the issue.

Senator Loretta Weinberg, a prime sponsor of the bill went a step further. Weinberg told me by telephone that Sarlo assured her he would post the bill. She maintains that the votes are indeed there on Judiciary...and Sarlo guaranteed her there would be a vote.

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by: Jason Springer @ Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 15:16:50 PM UTC

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Does Paul Sarlo usually live up to his commitments? (0.00 / 0)

He doesn't strike me as the most trustworthy person.  If anything, he seems like the least trustworthy Democrat in the legislature, especially considering his relationship with former BCDO Chair and convicted felon, Joe Ferriero.

Following are my best guesses at how a vote could go in the JC, which I posted previously.

Sarlo, Paul A. - Chair (will vote No if his vote is not needed to pass)

Girgenti, John A. - Vice Chair (Yes, because Jeff Gardner will never forgive him if he votes No)

Baroni, Bill (Yes, because I want to believe that he is as decent as he seems)

Bateman, Christopher (No)

Beck, Jennifer (Yes, see Baroni)

Cardinale, Gerald (HELL NO)

Gill, Nia H. (Yes)

Kyrillos, Joseph M. (No)

Lesniak, Raymond J. (Yes)

Scutari, Nicholas P. (Yes, because if he doesn't, he had better get Dunellen and Plainfield removed from his district by 2011)

Smith, Bob (Yes, see Girgenti)

Stack, Brian P. (Yes)

Weinberg, Loretta (HELL YES)

The more that I think about it, though, the less confident I am that Baroni and Beck will do the right thing.  Unless districts are crafted for them where they would be relatively safe from both primary and general election challenges, I don't think that either would vote Yes and risk being challenged by a wingnut in the 2011 primary.

If I am right about this, that makes my estimated nosecount 7-6 in favor of marriage equality, which means that if I am wrong about any of the other Democrats in the JC, we lose.

And if Baroni and Beck don't vote for marriage equality in the JC, where are the 3-4 Republicans going to be found when the vote goes to the floor, as they are the best hopes that we have there?  Aren't they?  Or is it possible that, as Yoda said in "Empire Strikes Back", "there is another..."?  If so, I don't know who that could be.

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by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sat Nov 14, 2009 at 17:17:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]