PPP looks at the 2010 turnout and health care reform

by: Hopeful

Mon Nov 09, 2009 at 04:44:53 PM EST

Second we asked how they would vote for Congress next year if no health care bill passed. In Virginia that increased the GOP lead to 49-35 and in New Jersey it expanded it to 45-38. In other words the failure to pass health care did not put any dent into the percentage of people saying they'll vote Republican next year. They're voting for the GOP whether health care passes or not. But it did create a small decline in Democratic support from voters who seem to be saying that if a Democratic Congress can't create meaningful health care reform what's the point in going out to vote Democratic anyway.

Third we asked how people would vote if Congress passed a health care bill with a public option. In Virginia the GOP led 51-39 under that scenario and in New Jersey it was a 47-40 advantage. So in Virginia Democrats poll slightly better with a comprehensive health care bill than without one and in New Jersey there's no difference.

All disputes over the quality of the health care reform bill aside, this is an illustration of why many of us also think a Democratic (Adler) vote against health care is political malpractice. While it makes little difference to most people, it seems there's evidence that failure will keep a bit of the base home, when what Democrats need is to increase turnout. The best you can hope, I suppose, is that the effect is small enough that perhaps it won't really pan out that way if health care reforms fails.