| Obviously, there are risks that must be considered on both sides of this question, first and foremost being whether there is a greater risk that Senator Lautenberg's U.S. Senate seat will become vacant during Governor-elect Christie's first term in office than whomever Governor Corzine would select to replace Senator Lautenberg, if he were to resign, would lose to a Republican challenger in the 2010 general election? For the sake of this discussion, let us assume that the risk/reward ratio leans towards Senator Lautenberg's resignation and replacement.
Turnout is obviously what determines success for Democrats and it is more likely that the turnout will be higher in 2010 if there is a compelling statewide election, which there would be if Senator Lautenberg were to resign and be replaced, than it would be if there isn't, which would be the case if this were to not happen.
Of course, this is also true if Senator Lautenberg's U.S. Senate seat was vacated during Christie's first months in office, although turnout would not be as much of a variable for a Christie-appointed incumbent in 2010 as it would be for a Corzine-appointed incumbent.
This question becomes even more critical during the middle two years of Christie's term as we have no idea what the 2010 elections will yield. Considering the gains made by Republicans in 2004, there should be, once again, more Republican seats being defended than Democratic seats, which should theoretically yield additional gains in the Democratic majority in the Senate.
However, there is also history to contend with as the first mid-term elections in a President's term usually results in lost seats and President Obama's first year, while better than President Clinton's first year, does not fill me with a surplus of confidence going into next year's elections.
If the Democrats were to gain seats in the U.S. Senate in 2010, the future of Senator Lautenberg's seat would be less of an issue during the two years that followed, but if the Democrats were to lose seats next year, the loss of Senator Lautenberg's seat could result in a major legislative crisis for the Obama Administration.
Other factors to be considered when answering this question are the questions that would arise as a result of Senator Lautenberg's resignation and replacement. Who would be the most likely replacement? Could/Should/Would he/she be a caretaker or someone who would also run for re-election?
Would a caretaker replacement result in a free-for-all primary with sitting Congressmen being unable to run for re-election in their districts unless they were able to do what Rob Andrews did last year? Are their districts safe enough in the current political climate in the state to pull off shenanigans like that? Are their districts as safe as they seem or are they safe as a result of the power of incumbency? Would open seats be less safe? If so, how much less safe?
My answers to the caretaker-related questions are Yes; No; Power of incumbency more important than district makeup in most cases; Yes in most cases; Depending on turnout, Democrat running for an open seat could perform 5-15 percentage points lower than incumbent, except in majority-minority districts, where a Democrat running for an open seat could perform anywhere between 5-10 points higher to 5-10 points lower depending on the seat and individuals in question, making this entire scenario the most unlikely of all.
If a replacement runs for re-election, would he/she likely face primary challengers? If so, how many? Based on his personal relationship with Senator Lautenberg, the role that he played in keeping Senator Lautenberg on the party line in Bergen County last year, and his early support for President Obama, I think that Congressman Steve Rothman would be the most likely candidate to replace Senator Lautenberg.
Congressman Rothman is also the candidate who is least likely to face a primary challenge as the only likely challengers that he would face would be Congressman John Adler or Congressman Rob Andrews from South Jersey with Adler being the most likely challenger, because of the fragile nature of his district and Andrews' poor performance against Lautenberg last year.
Congressman Frank Pallone is probably the next most likely candidate to replace Senator Lautenberg and the next least likely candidate to face a primary challenge as he probably has the strongest statewide following amongst his Democratic colleagues in NJ's Congressional delegation. One could argue that Congressman Andrews has the highest name recognition amongst NJ's Democratic Congressmen as a result of his participation in the 1997 gubernatorial primary election and the 2008 senatorial primary election, but I think that his performance in those primary elections speaks for itself.
Once again, Adler and Andrews represent the most likely primary challengers to Pallone with Adler being more likely than Andrews. There is also a possibility that Pallone could enter a Rothman-Adler/Andrews primary race or that Rothman could enter a Pallone-Adler/Andrews race, but I think that either scenario is unlikely.
I think that Congressmen Adler, Andrews, Holt, Pascrell, Payne, and Sires are all unlikely replacements as they would most likely inspire a much larger field of primary challengers.
The wildcard in this whole discussion is Governor Jon Corzine himself. If given the opportunity to name a replacement for Senator Lautenberg, as a former Senator and without a job to go to next year, is it possible, if not likely that he would name himself?
Would Corzine's millions of dollars scare away everyone in the Congressional delegation from challenging him in a primary like it did in 2000?
Would soon-to-be former Senate President Codey, who never seemed particularly interested in the U.S. Senate seat that Corzine vacated after winning the gubernatorial election in 2005, take him on now that he would no longer have a Senate Presidency to return to and with absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain?
Would the cabal of party bosses that came together to oust Codey in favor of State Senator Steve Sweeney support him in this effort just to get him out of the State Senate and to give Governor Corzine one last thumb in the eye (or some other finger doing something else)?
If no other primary challenger stepped forward, is it possible that former Governor Jim Florio would attempt another comeback and take Corzine on in a rematch of their 2000 senatorial primary election? As a former Florio staffer from that campaign, I find this scenario especially compelling, albeit extremely unlikely. A politics junkie can dream, can't he? |
