Is Bill Baroni in trouble in 2011?

by: Dvd Avins

Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 04:58:14 PM EST

Baroni's base is Hamilton Township, the largest town in the 14th district and famous for its large number of state employees. With Democratic governors, the state senator has managed to avoid greatly antagonizing those workers by going along with the Democrats on occasion.

That just got much harder. We can expect Christie to take positions that are overwhelmingly hostile to civil servants. And to expect a certain degree of loyalty from Republican legislators. There may not be enough wiggle room for Baroni to stay on the good side of the state Republican party and also to get reelected in a Hamilton-based district.

Given the civil service factor and the Norcross/Sweeney machine's involvement with public employee unions, it would be a major disappointment, a dereliction of partisan duty, even, if the new Senate President fails to recurit a strong candidate to run against Baroni.

A complicating factor is that we don't know what towns will be in the Hamilton district after the 2010 census. Given the growth in the area, I doubt that we'll have a district that stretches all the way from Hamilton to South Brunswick (or beyond) as we have the past three decades. That makes it harder for those contemplating campaigns to get moving early. But the party bosses on both sides will have inside information during the bargaining process that will result in the new districts. That makes it all the more crucial for Sweeney to assist in at least letting potential candidates know that they may have an opportunity.

I'm not a fan of backroom dealing, even without the old-fashioned cigar smoke. But everyone has their strengths and weaknesses. The probability that the State Senate will become a beacon of openness in the next two years is approximately zero. So the 14th district seat gives Sweeney a chance to do what he does best and to show the merits of his style of politics.

Dvd Avins :: Is Bill Baroni in trouble in 2011?

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Is Bill Baroni in trouble in 2011? | 3 comments

Hamilton is a mixed bag (4.00 / 1)

Hamilton is a strange political town that swings both ways, but he is ridiculously popular there and is likely to land on his feet regardless of what towns get tied to Hamilton and what happens with the state unions.

Hamilton is the big boy on the block in the region, likely to make up about half of whatever district it is part of, so it will have an inordinate influence on what happens next.

Baroni is in a tough spot for a different reason, I think. He is a popular Republican who has not been afraid to reach across the aisle, but he also has worked hard for McCain and Christie. Does he continue to follow his more progressive tendencies on some social issues (gay rights, medical marijuana) and the environment or does he fall in line with the pie-in-the-sky nonsense likely to be put up by his fellow GOPers?

There also is the role that Lonegan now seems to play in the party -- what will that mean for Republicans like Baroni and Beck. Bears watching.

by: Hank Kalet @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 22:16:04 PM UTC

if more GOPers .... (0.00 / 0)

....we're like Beck and Baroni, they'd be a lot harder to beat.

activist for hire.

by: Jay Lassiter @ Thu Nov 05, 2009 at 03:20:47 AM UTC

Baroni will have a safe district in 2011 (0.00 / 0)

Because both the Democratic and Republican establishments like working with Baroni, I predict that a district will be created for him that is safe enough for him to consistently win re-election, while not being too conservative to attract a hardcore, right-wing primary challenger.

As far as Baroni being good on gay rights is concerned, do we know how he is expected to vote on marriage equality legislation when it comes before the Senate Judiciary Committee, of which he is a member? Any thoughts on some of the others?

My guesses are in parentheses.

Sarlo, Paul A. - Chair (will vote No if his vote is not needed to pass, which seems likely)

Girgenti, John A. - Vice Chair (Yes, because Jeff Gardner will never forgive him if he votes No)

Baroni, Bill (Yes, because I want to believe that he is as decent as he seems)

Bateman, Christopher (No)

Beck, Jennifer (Yes, see Baroni)

Cardinale, Gerald (HELL NO)

Gill, Nia H. (Yes)

Kyrillos, Joseph M. (No)

Lesniak, Raymond J. (Yes)

Scutari, Nicholas P. (Yes, because if he doesn't, he had better get Dunellen and Plainfield removed from his district by 2011)

Smith, Bob (Yes, see Girgenti)

Stack, Brian P. (Yes)

Weinberg, Loretta (HELL YES)

Based on my best guess, that gives us a count of 9-4 in the SJC, although if I am wrong about Baroni and Beck, that narrows to 7-6, which will make this vote the ultimate nail-biter.

If anybody has any additional input to offer about how these State Senators will vote, I would love to read it.

by: Bertin Lefkovic @ Sat Nov 07, 2009 at 22:29:13 PM UTC