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Things are looking bad for Corzine

by: Scott Weingart

Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 09:24:47 PM EST

Updated by Jason: The AP calls it for Christie at 10:08.

Gloucester County is ~~almost~~ 100% in, and we're losing 47-44. Corzine won 53-43 in '05.

Christie is winning Ocean County by 37 with 91% in. Corzine lost by 13 in 2005.

Christie wins Hunterdon by 40/ points; Forrester won by 28 in 2005.

We're doing better in Cape May. Corzine trails by 15 with 88% in; he lost the county by 6 in '05.

Update
Sussex 100% in.
Christie 63.9 - Corzine 25.7 (Christie +38.2)
2005: Forrester 59.7 - Corzine 35.1 (Forrester +24.6)
Something is fishy in Sussex County, where Corzine is supposedly leading by 18,000.

As a point of reference, Corzine won by 10.45 percentage points in 2005. So all other things being equal, he can afford to lose about 10 points from the margin of victory in each county. Right now he's holding his own in Cape May.

Caveat: I don't know whether absentee ballots have been counted yet or not, but I suspect not. Absentees helped Obama last year and will help Corzine this year, but how many of them are out there?

Update #2
Monmouth is 97% in and we're losing by 31 points. Forrester won by 8 points in 2005.

Sussex County Update
Politico now has Christie leading 64-26 in Sussex County. That's more like it. Daggett is at better than 9% here, making Sussex one of his strongest counties. He seems to be doing strongest in the exurban northeast and weakest by the shore.

Assembly Races
I feel very good about LD-01, where Albano & Milam lead by over 1,000 with Cape May county basically 100% in. I'd go as far as calling the race for Albano (but not yet for Milam) Republicans have almost zero chance of winning the Assembly without taking both seats in the First.

Update: Essex County
With 84% in, Corzine leads 68-27 in Essex County. In 2005 he won by 47.5 points, so he's only losing about 6 points here. If the other urban counties follow the same trend, Corzine may be able to stay close enough for the absentees to make a difference.

Scott Weingart :: Things are looking bad for Corzine

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Things are looking bad for Corzine | 35 comments

More bad news (4.00 / 2)

With more than a third of the vote counted, Corzine is trailing 52-42.

However, Daggett is only at 5% which indicates that either these are not Republican areas reporting or Republicans are breaking for Christie.

Also, the open space ballot question -- which is effing hippy environmentalism and will raise taxes -- is winning 52-48 with the same population. That indicates open spacers (often liberal) are not backing Corzine.

However, as someone noted earlier, a lot of Republicans from Hunterdon and such places are pro-open space because it keeps the riff-raff away and promotes higher property values.

by: huntsu @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:29:22 AM UTC

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What about absentees? (0.00 / 0)

Not enough to swing?

by: JRB @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:35:28 AM UTC

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I'm worried about Riley in District 3 (0.00 / 0)

and other South Jersey Dems. We'll see.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:36:54 AM UTC

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Albano and Milam seem to be doing fairly well... (0.00 / 0)

...and I think they have a better than 50-50 shot of holding on.

by: Scott Weingart @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:39:33 AM UTC

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53% in (0.00 / 0)

Christie, Chris GOP 633,672 49%
Corzine, Jon (i) Dem 574,297 45%
Daggett, Christopher Ind 67,070 5%

Don't see where you get those 60K+ votes back.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:39:14 AM UTC

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Sussex (0.00 / 0)

McCain won with almost 60% of the vote, Scott Garrett gets around 66% of the vote in each of the Congressional races.

What is up with that?

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

by: Adam L @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:39:45 AM UTC

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Sussex was reversed (0.00 / 0)

and now changed to big win for Christie.

ugh.

Now I have to spend the next 4 years trying to dig up enough to get him investigated and step down in shame.

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

by: Adam L @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:44:31 AM UTC

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the numbers were reversed (0.00 / 0)

Back to Christie way ahead.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:44:51 AM UTC

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57.7 % in (0.00 / 0)

Christie - 50.4
Corzine - 43.5

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.

by: Rosi Efthim @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:43:08 AM UTC

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96K lead (0.00 / 0)

Christie leads (Corzine plus Daggett.)

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:46:25 AM UTC

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Scott, weren't you really pessimistic about the 07 races? (0.00 / 0)

Or something?

No offense, I'm just trying to imagine it's not over, though it is looking like Corzine can't climb above 45% and Daggett totally faded.

by: JRB @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:46:48 AM UTC

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Not that pessimistic. (0.00 / 0)

though I started getting pessimistic when I began to see the numbers in 12 (where I spent a lot of time on the ground).

The only race that really surprised me was 14, though I was also surprised that our margin was so small in 22.

by: Scott Weingart @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:55:52 AM UTC

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Too bad. n/t (0.00 / 0)

by: JRB @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:00:14 AM UTC

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Hey, new people! (4.00 / 3)

Sign yourself up for an account!

Blue Jersey has really high traffic the last few hours, but we can tell from the registered user count that a lot of you aren't registered.

It's a snap - top right of the blog, you can create a shiny new - and free - Blue Jersey account. Then you can start using it, and let us know what you've got on your mind.

It's not a particularly snappy signature, but here's what I think we need in the next NJ Democratic State Chair.

by: Rosi Efthim @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:54:30 AM UTC

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64% reporting, and Corzne behind by 100K (0.00 / 0)

Christopher J. Christie Rep. 796,993 50.0%
Jon S. Corzine Dem. 698,908 43.8 Incumbent
Christopher J. Daggett Ind. 85,142 5.3

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 02:58:08 AM UTC

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71% same (0.00 / 0)

Christopher J. Christie Rep. 877,888 49.8%
Jon S. Corzine Dem. 774,167 43.9 Incumbent
Christopher J. Daggett Ind. 95,469 5.4

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:09:56 AM UTC

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yay Salem County (0.00 / 0)

Only county with no results.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:07:18 AM UTC

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AP has called it (0.00 / 0)

for Christie.

As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand.

by: Jersey Shore John @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:10:28 AM UTC

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Fuck... (0.00 / 0)

"Give me a lever long enough... and I shall move the world." - Archimedes

by: mconvente @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:10:49 AM UTC

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makes sense (0.00 / 0)

I don't see how he could make up 100K deficit in just 29% of the precints.

In Salem County, admittedly not a lot of people, but for example, it will split fairly evenly, so there will be no meaningful gain when it reports. Heck, I'd guess Christie wins it outright.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:14:37 AM UTC

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How long before he's (0.00 / 0)

indicted?

As scarce as truth is, the supply has always been in excess of the demand.

by: Jersey Shore John @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:15:57 AM UTC

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you could start a prediction thread (0.00 / 0)

in diaries. :)

Not that the running mate would necessarily be better.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:20:48 AM UTC

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Ugh. (0.00 / 0)

Just ugh.

by: ivalentine @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:41:07 AM UTC

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To my friends on the Corzine campaign (4.00 / 3)

You did your best and you took a hopeless endeavor and made it a real race.

Be proud of what you've done and be thankful you're from NJ.

by: JRB @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:21:00 AM UTC

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Assemnly races looking not too bad (0.00 / 0)

Cautiously optimistic in NJ3, NJ1, etc.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:22:49 AM UTC

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Assembly races and Freeholder (0.00 / 0)

Have some numbers to share with us??

by: nsodano @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:25:52 AM UTC

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Ahead in District 1, 99% reporting (0.00 / 0)

District 1
District 1 Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Nelson Albano Dem. 30,508 28.0% Incumbent
Matthew Milam Dem. 28,122 25.8 Incumbent
Michael Donohue Rep. 25,704 23.5
John McCann Rep. 24,814 22.7

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:28:54 AM UTC

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District 4 splits (97%) (0.00 / 0)

District 4
District 4 Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Paul Moriarty Dem. 26,779 26.0% Incumbent
Domenick DiCicco Rep. 26,276 25.5
William Collins Dem. 25,020 24.3
Eugene Lawrence Rep. 24,972 24.2

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:30:49 AM UTC

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What about Burlco? (0.00 / 0)

Assem and Freeholders. Anything?

by: nsodano @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:34:29 AM UTC

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District 3, small Dem lead at 73% (0.00 / 0)

Salem County is missing, half the area but only a quarter of the people.

District 3
District 3 Candidate Party Votes Pct.
John Burzichelli Dem. 24,015 27.9% Incumbent
Celeste Riley Dem. 22,262 25.9 Incumbent
Robert Villare Rep. 20,983 24.4
Lee Lucas Rep. 18,830 21.9

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Wed Nov 04, 2009 at 03:35:16 AM UTC

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