2009 General Election Prediction Thread

my stab in the dark (0.00 / 0)

Corzine 43%
Daggett 11%
Christie 45%

Open Space bond passes.

Dems lose 4 Assembly seats.  

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

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by: Hopeful @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 01:44:24 AM UTC

Eh (4.00 / 1)

20% turnout
44 Christie
42 Corzine
12 Daggett

Loser: New Jersey

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by: Thurman Hart @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 03:51:30 AM UTC

Go Dems (4.00 / 1)

Corzine 45%
Christie 43%
Daggett 12%

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by: tracey @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 04:03:29 AM UTC

Prediction (4.00 / 1)

The Assembly stays exactly as is:  48 Democrats, 32 Republicans.

And now here's where I wimp out:

Corzine or Christie will get 45%
Corzine or Christie will get 44%
Daggett will get 9%
Others will together get 2%

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by: Steven Goldstein, Garden State Equality chair @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 04:16:00 AM UTC

Here we go (4.00 / 1)

Assembly: Democrats lose 2 seats.

Corzine 44%
Christie 43%
Daggett 9%
Other 4%

Open Space quesiton passes, but I think it's close and the phrasing is important in the question because it says bonding, not borrowing.

Disclaimer: These predictions are a pure guess because this race has been wild and all over the map. Every time I think I know, it seems I don't.

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by: Jason Springer @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 04:34:17 AM UTC

Head vs Gut... (4.00 / 1)

My head tells me that the momentum began to swing back to Christie in the last few days as there was no new compelling exciting devastating explosive incendiary attacks from the Corzine campaign.  

Even the Republicans voting for Christie know in their heart of hearts that he's a fraud.  That's why they're more likely to tell a live pollster that they won't vote for him...but will tell a machine voice (IVR) that they will.   On a certain level they are ashamed to vote for this creep but they hate Corzine and have some fantasy that Christie has a hidden viable plan that will cut their taxes.

I suspect that most of the "smart money" gives it to Christie in a squeaker based on he rough shape of the economy, the popular perception by many (though it is based on ignorance of the facts) that Corzine hasn't "done" anything, and the perception that he's not a strong/passionate/inspiring/charismatic leader.

Having said all that, I'm going with my gut. I believe the "smart money" will be wrong and that the Democratic machines (in the good sense of the word ;-) will get out the vote and that Obama's visits and and the energy the sparked will ignite a last minute surge for Jon Corzine that will carry him over the finish line in a strong 3 to 5 point victory.

And as long as I'm here "predicting" I'll predict that whoever wins this, that the LG will at some point become the sitting governor.    In the case of Corzine, because he will have accepted an appointment to another job, and in the case of Christie because he will have been indicted on criminal charges.   The man truly is a dishonest lying corrupt creep. (And keep in mind that the last person I've been saying that kind of stuff about for years was Joe Ferreiro ;-)

Corzine    45%
Christie    42%
Daggett   11%

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by: Nick Lento @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 05:32:30 AM UTC

Daggett Falls (0.00 / 0)

Corzine 46%
Christie 44&
Daggett 8%
others 2%

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by: Dvd Avins @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 11:33:58 AM UTC

I predict... (0.00 / 0)

...that BurlCo will be the closest of all the counties.  we might even surprise.

activist for hire.

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by: Jay Lassiter @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 12:26:37 PM UTC

My read on Murray (0.00 / 0)

MU's Patrick Murray seems to be having a Tim Russert moment, reading between the lines in his analysis:

"It's Middlesex (County), Middlesex, Middlesex."

Get out there, GOTV in Middlesex.  Lead the Dems home.

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by: jim34 @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 13:08:04 PM UTC

my only prediction (0.00 / 0)

is that Daggett gets well under 10% (maybe 7%).

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 14:48:28 PM UTC

my prediction is that (4.00 / 1)

you and i will be speculating about it all on Blue Jersey radio tonight at 8pm.  I'll be live from the Corzine party in East Brunswick.  Who else is planning to be there of our readers?  Stop by and say hi!

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by: Jason Springer @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 15:42:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

heh...you and me (0.00 / 0)

parsing things 6 ways to Sunday?

NAHHHHHHHHHHHH.....

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 20:02:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

maybe (0.00 / 0)

All the polls show him around 10% I could see him going that low if people get to the polls and just can't justify in their minds voting for a candidate without a chance of winning...who knows though hes the gamechanging factor in tihs whole thing, this could be the Minnesota Senate race all over again..minus all of the court appeals

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by: ErikPreuss @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 15:55:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

keep in mind (0.00 / 0)

Daggett polled as high as 20% a week ago.

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by: ErikPreuss @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 15:57:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

true, but (0.00 / 0)

who says there won't be a ton of court appeals if need be?

As Jason points out on the front page here, the noise machine is already ramped up.

Scott Garrett - on the wrong side of, well, everything.

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by: Adam L @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 20:03:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well (0.00 / 0)

I haven't been on much since I got to school so I made a new screen name.  Anyway here are my predictions:

If there is under a 25% turnout I think Corzine wins or if Daggett goes over 10% I think Corzine wins. outside of that I don't see a forseeable scenario in which Corzine can win:
Christie: 43%
Corzine: 44%
Dagget: 11%

I really think Daggett will breach the 10% mark I do not however think that there will be over a under a 25% turnout

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by: ErikPreuss @ Tue Nov 03, 2009 at 15:53:08 PM UTC