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FDU poll shows Corzine with a 43-41 lead

by: Jason Springer

Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 03:16:40 PM EST

Just when you thought you were done with the polls, FDU is out with a poll that shows the Governor holding a slim two point lead over Chris Christie:

Polling over the past 11 days by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMind™ shows that Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Chris Christie continued down to the wire in a close contest in the race for New Jersey governor. Reporting 1119 interviews of likely voters from Oct. 22 through Nov. 1 shows Corzine maintaining 43% support including leaners, against 41%, including leaners, for Christie, with 8% for independent Chris Daggett, 2% preferring other candidates, and 5% undecided, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

This part of the poll memo confused me as they separated white women from the rest of women:

Democrats often have a significant advantage among women, offsetting a Republican advantage among men, but this year white women split evenly between Corzine and Christie (42-42) while white men prefer Christie by a large margin (55-29).

Does that mean that women and men who weren't white didn't help them make their point? They say that a majority of voters think that no matter what the numbers say now, Jon Corzine will be the Governor once again:

Nonetheless, more than half of voters (56%) say they think Corzine will win the election, against 28% who think that Christie will win. One percent say Daggett will win, and 15% say they don't know who will pull this one out.

Polls only matter if the people who participate actually go and vote. That's all we have left now is the ground game.

Jason Springer :: FDU poll shows Corzine with a 43-41 lead

Tags: 2009, Governor, Chris Daggett, Jon Corzine, Chris Christie, polls, (All Tags)

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FDU poll shows Corzine with a 43-41 lead | 6 comments

Too long a period (4.00 / 1)

That's just ridiculous. Polling should be three days, at most four. Polling over a 11 day period is meaningless because more than half the poll has stale numbers.

by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 20:21:42 PM UTC

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Their last poll was conducted (0.00 / 0)

from 10/22 to 10/28. I don't know what to make of these numbers because this one says the poll was from 10/22-11/1. So did they just add the new numbers on? Did they average? I'm not really sure and the internals aren't posted on their website yet.

by: Jason Springer @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 20:33:47 PM UTC

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Looks like they just added on (0.00 / 0)

10/29 to 11/1 would have been okay.

by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 20:36:44 PM UTC

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I'd guess Rasmussen will have a last release too (0.00 / 0)

If so, should be soon. Unless they do it today and release it tomorrow. They're the opposite of FDU, they do polls in a single night.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 20:32:40 PM UTC

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Which is also ridiculous (0.00 / 0)

Plus, we all know who'll be ahead in their poll. ; )

by: 12mileseastofTrenton @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 20:35:56 PM UTC

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Finally, A Positive Roll For "The Machines".... (0.00 / 0)

....this is what they are for and can be good at; getting out the base.

The final "poll" is tomorrow and it'll be a ground game that determines the results. That much is obvious...we've all seen this pattern before, Dems come through at the end. Let's do all we can to insure that the pattern repeats one more time.

There will be plenty of time for discussing what could have been done better after we win this one! And I'm STILL counting on a comfortable 5 pt, or so, margin of victory....if Democrats show up.

by: Nick Lento @ Mon Nov 02, 2009 at 21:45:06 PM UTC

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FDU poll shows Corzine with a 43-41 lead | 6 comments