Poll: Corzine up by five

by: Hopeful

Thu Oct 29, 2009 at 01:33:21 PM EDT

With less than a week to go before Election Day in New Jersey, a new survey conducted for Stan Greenberg and James Carville's organization Democracy Corps shows Democratic Governor Jon Corzine slightly expanding his lead over Republican Chris Christie to 5 points.  Corzine now garners 43 percent of the vote to Christie's 38 percent and independent Chris Daggett's 12 percent.  A week ago Corzine led by 3 points.  When Daggett voters are pushed to choose one of the two major party candidates, Corzine's lead holds steady at 5 points, 47 to 42 percent.

As Daggett continues to be subjected to Christie's attacks, his negatives continue to rise.  The independent candidate is now viewed favorably by 16 percent of voters, basically unchanged from a week ago.  However, he is now seen unfavorably by 34 percent of voters, up 9 points in the last week.

These results are based on a Democracy Corps survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner from October 27-28, 2009 among 604 likely voters in New Jersey. The margin of error is +/- 4.0 percent.  You can find this release as well as the full survey results at http://www.democracycorps.com/.

What's there to say? This is a poll run by Democrats which had results which lean more Corzine than the average. On the other hand, they used to find Christie ahead, and their tracking of Christie's decline matches the average of other pollsters. So it's legitimate. The full crosstabs are available at their website if you want to dig into them. The electorate seems rather old, which is presumably appropriate in an odd year. It is 53% female. President Obama is at 57% "warm feelings" and 29% "cool feelings"