Quinnipiac: For the first time, Corzine's ahead

by: vincent solomeno

Wed Oct 28, 2009 at 07:54:48 AM EDT

The news should come as a shot in the arm to Democrats, who struggled all summer and fall to overcome what began as a double digit lead for Christie in the same poll.  As State Senate President Dick Codey (D-Essex) told a reporter last night, "In July, he was dead man walking. Now, he's Lazarus."

Resurrected from the political graveyard or not, the news from Quinnipiac is not all good for Corzine, who continues to receive poor marks for his job performance.  Respondents disapprove 54%-39% of the job he's doing as Governor, which on the bright side is his best showing in months.  Interestingly, support for the two major candidates is nearly a mirror image in their respective parties.  Corzine wins Democrats 79%-8% while Christie enjoys support of 79% to Corzine's 7% among GOP likely voters.  In a campaign where the outcome may be determined by base voters, both will be looking to improve those numbers in the next few days.

The race remains wide open.  In addition to Corzine's upside down approval ratings, 5% of likely voters remain undecided, and perhaps more significantly, 38% of Daggett supporters say they are likely to change their mind and switch their support before Tuesday.  Quinnipiac Polling Director Maurice Carroll believes those numbers underscore just how fluid the race actually is.  He said, "Christopher Daggett changed it from 'ABC' - Anybody But Corzine - to a real three-way scrap. But a lot of Daggett's voters say they might change their minds by Election Day. Where will they go?"

While the answer to that question will have to wait until next Tuesday, Corzine's negative ad campaign has paid dividends in the fight against Christie, who's own unfavorable rating continues to increase at a rapid clip.  Respondents split 39-39% on whether the former U.S. Attorney is honest and trustworthy, his worst numbers since Quinnipiac began polling on the question,  As another polling report, this one from Rasmussen, noted yesterday, "About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state."

With six days to go, Corzine's campaign is hoping that the media blitz, visits from the Democratic A-List, and their traditionally superior GOTV operation will propel the embattled incumbent across the finish line come Election Day.

From October 20 - 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,267 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.