There's an interesting new release (PDF) from Eagleton-Rutgers. This is the same poll that had Corzine ahead by three. Eagleton reports:
New Jersey's $400 million dollar open space bond issue is at risk of failing according to a Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released today. Among likely voters in the November 3 election, 43 percent oppose borrowing for open space while 41 percent support borrowing, a statistical dead heat. Another 16 percent are undecided.
The Rutgers-Eagleton poll results vary dramatically from another recent poll which found 55 percent of likely voters in favor, and only 32 percent opposed. The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll of 583 likely voters has a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percent.
"It is rare to see such significant differences in two polls taken at nearly the same time," said David Redlawsk, director of the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll and professor of political science at Rutgers. "In this case, however, the difference is in the way the question was asked. When voters are cued to the idea that a bond issue means borrowing money they are far less supportive than when simply told that bonds will be issued."
The Rutgers-Eagleton Poll asked the question: "Voters will decide whether New Jersey should borrow $400 million to preserve open space, farmland, and historic areas. Do you plan to vote for or against borrowing this money?" In comparison other polls have simply asked voters whether they support "bonding" for open space without specifying that bonding means borrowing money.
They're referring to the recent Monmouth-Gannett poll. FDU also found the open space question way ahead (56-32) just a few weeks ago, but they also asked about "bonds" rather than "borrowing."
I was initially surprised that the question was doing so well, because I guessed voters were sick of borrowing, and I remember a Salem County measure actually failing recently. Lonegan has a chance to have an impact here, I think, but I don't pretend to know what will happen. If you're wondering, the Public Question and its interpretative statement have "bond" but not "borrowing." |
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