| This is the single weirdest election I have ever seen, and it may get even weirder.
The AP is reporting that the Rutger's Eagleton Poll has Corzine leading with 39, Christie following at 36, and Daggett jumping up to 20. Statistically it's a tie at the top since the margin of error is 4.1 percent, but given the trends it is more bad news for Christie.
Corzine has been hovering around 39 for a while, trying to break 40 but seemingly unable to. Christie has been up in the 50s over the summer, but as the voters get to know him he's been collapsing. This is the lowest number I've seen, and shows what an unattractive candidate he really is.
But the story is Daggett, who is polling in the 20s now and halfway to Corzine's levels. It seems that Christie's collapse is Daggett's gain, and Corzine is just hanging around reaping the benefit.
But the real worry for Democrats is whether Daggett can start doing that to Corzine in the next week and a half, if he can pull off a Ventura and surge on election day. If enough people choose to put a pox on both houses, then they could wander off into Independent land.
However, a more likely possibility is that many of the disaffected voters out there who are on the Daggett side of the ledger are Democratic leaning unaffiliated voters or even registered Democrats who are pissed at the state of the country and state and looking to punish someone.
But when push comes to shove and they get in the polling booth, a lot of these folks will pull the level for the Democrats as they normally do. Telling a pollster you'll vote against your party is one thing, but actually doing it is another.
The voter registration still heavily favors Democrats in New Jersey, and it takes a real movement to overcome these kind of numbers. Unfortunately for Christie he is not charismatic enough to lead such a movement based on personality, and hasn't developed any ideas people can grab on to, either.
Corzine is in the same boat, neither charismatic enough nor full of ideas, but has the structural advantages of incumbency and registration.
All in all, this looks like a good position for Corzine to be in -- as long as the campaign is ready for a strong GOTV effort. |
