Deep Thought from Josh Marshall

by: Jason Springer

Wed Oct 21, 2009 at 08:55:18 PM EDT

Josh Marshall had this take on the NJ Governor's race over at TPM earlier today while watching the rally with Governor Corzine and President Obama:

A few more thoughts on this race. I said a few weeks ago that I had the sense that Christie did not know how or have a plan for closing the deal on this race. The race is still basically tied. So it's not like Christie is out of it by any means. But the final weeks of a campaign is often where you really see what each candidate is made of. And beside falling in the polls (and since Corzine can't seem to get much above 40%, it really is a matter of Christie falling) almost everything Christie has done over the last couple weeks seems aimed at not only losing the race but zeroing out his own personal dignity in advance of election day. It really does seem like all Christie had going for him in this race was Jon Corzine's unpopularity. And given how unpopular Corzine is, that ain't nuthin. But the unpopularity of the other guy is seldom really sufficient if that's literally all you have.

They have run this race as the not Jon Corzine to the point where they're even trying to make Chris Daggett become Corzine now in their ads. But what about when you don't present yourself as a viable option? That's Christie's problem and each story that comes out seems to undermine what he wanted people to think he was even more.

Jason Springer :: Deep Thought from Josh Marshall

Tags: Chris Daggett, 2009, Governor, Jon Corzine, Chris Christie, (All Tags)

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Deep Thought from Josh Marshall | 2 comments

'Corzine Momentum' into 'Corzine Hubriis' (4.00 / 2)

Maybe it's just me, but Marshall comes across as really smug in that snippet.

A lot of us have said what Marshall says here (Christie was only running as an anti-Corzine and he needs to beef up his plans) but I don't believe any of us have ever said it in the "DUH! How could he be so naive?" tone that TPM takes.

In fact, 'not being Jon Corzine' sounded -- and still sounds -- like a pretty rational strategy. And I think it can still work (and so does Marshall, it seems).

BUT. I think the Corzine Momentum risks turning into the Corzine Hubris in the next week and a half. Marshall's 'how-dumb-of-Christie' mentality is indicative of the new Democratic narrative in this race: 'It's not in the bag, but really, it's in the bag!'... And it's begun slipping into the national press coverage, too.

Corzine's doing great right now. We all know that Democrats do better than the pollsters place our races, so if things remain, Corzine wins. OK. I've said that a bunch of times.

BUT. This is JON CORZINE we're talking about here. And a LOT of people dislike him. And I wouldn't be surprised that if anyone could negate the Democratic polling-to-booth bump, it's him.

I mean, take me for example: I should be a Corzine voter and I still lean Daggett.

by: JRB @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 03:11:20 AM UTC

Agreed. Corzine still isn't leading in the polls, (4.00 / 1)

but I think there's too much confidence about this race will end. Yes, the race is close and the difference is less than the margin of error, but in most of the polls, Corzine is still behind, even it's by a very, narrow bit.

I'm voting for Corzine but I still don't know how to explain that vote to others. As far as I can tell, Corzine isn't trying to either. His positive campaign ads still don't seem to be running much. I keep seeing the Christie mammogram ad over and over again. If I were an independent voter, that ad would tell me to not vote for Christie, but doesn't tell me why I should vote for Corzine over Daggett. Perhaps it's because I'm in a small city, but I've met a few of Daggett's supporters and they are full of positive reasons why one needs to vote for Daggett. I can't say I see the same positive vibe coming from the Corzine campaign.

Having said that, the Obama rally was marvelous and Corzine should just keep repeating Obama's speech for the rest of the campaign. It gives people a reason to vote for Corzine.

by: princetonblue @ Thu Oct 22, 2009 at 13:56:53 PM UTC