Will Daggett's voters stick with him? PPP says yes

by: Hopeful

Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 01:03:27 PM EDT

Polls released this week, three weeks before the election, have shown Daggett at an average of 14%. I decided to look at all the independent or third party candidates who have received at least 5% of the vote in a Gubernatorial contest since 2006 and see where they were polling roughly three weeks prior to election day and how that compared to their final share of the vote.

You can look at his compilation of poll data and election results, but the conclusion is:

With the exception of Kinky Friedman none of the candidates did more than a point worse than they were doing in the polls three weeks before the election. On average they even did a little more than a point better.

In another post he argues that if Daggett's voters abandon him, it's only worth a point or so. That, however, is about the size of Christie's lead today.