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Another poll finds the race tied

by: Hopeful

Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 04:48:48 PM EDT

PolitickerNJ has a new poll from Republican Rick Shaftan's Neighborhood Research. It has Chris Christie at 36%, Corzine just behind at 35%, and Chris Daggett at 11%. Both Corzine (28-46) and Christie (28-31) have terrible favorable-unfavorable numbers. To be consistent, I need to call this a Christie lead, but with "definite voters" the race is "really" tied: 36-36.

I have to caution that this is based on a mere 300 registered voters from October 6-8. That really is less than you'd like to see in a sample -- the margin of error is 5.7%.

The small sample size does not prevent Shaftan from writing a report that makes very interesting reading (PDF at PolitickerNJ), but really the subsamples need to be viewed with a lot of suspicion due to the tiny sizes. Some of the claims that I found interesting

This poll has the highest percentage of conservatives (40%) Shaftan has ever seen -- is this really the electorate or a just sampling error? (Yes, the poll is 40% conservative yet Christie is at 36%. Hiya Mulshine!)

The "Daggett vote is real, at least for now." Shaftan points to the tax plan fairly convincingly, but remember he is a conservative pollster with an agenda.

Shaftan finds a 44-36 Generic Assembly lead for the GOP

In particular, Shaftan suggests a healthy generic ballot lead for Republicans in South Jersey may give them upsets in LD1, 3, 4 and 6. Overall he believes an 18 seat pickup is possible.

Corzine's open-ended responses are now more positive and he "has the momentum." The "liberal base" has come home while Christie has not improved with his "conservative base."

The key question is where do undecideds go. They have a bad opinion of Christie and a worse opinion of Corzine.

Because I remarked on the use of the "trying" as the positive word for Corzine in the Monmouth responses -- and that not being so great -- I have to quote this:

Looking at key words in open-endeds 30 percent of Corzine's favorables said "done" or "doing" only 5 percent said "trying" -- a big change from last month.

What do you think? Do you have any sense of what's happening on the ground in the Assembly races?

Hopeful :: Another poll finds the race tied

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Another poll finds the race tied | 8 comments

1st District Looking Good (4.00 / 1)

This District is the classic" all politics is local " area.

The Governors race will have very little effect on the ability of both Milam and Albano to beat their Republican opponents.

The two Republicans hired " I never win in New Jersey" Bill Pascoe to run their campaign. He isthe same guy who ran Nick Asselta into the ground. He has no clue about the 1st district.

Milam and Alabno have been good ,independent , Democrats .

Van Drew is running their campaign and no one understands this District better then he does.

by: firstamend07 @ Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 20:58:39 PM UTC

by: you @ soon

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Only in a best-case scenario. (0.00 / 0)

I think that Democrats are going to lose these two seats, at the very least. I don't want to be a downer, but I expect Milam and Albano to lose to Donohue and McCann on election day. Maybe if Van Drew was on the ticket and Corzine wasn't, the Dems could hold these seats, but the opposite is true.

My two cents.

by: NJCentrist @ Sat Oct 10, 2009 at 20:21:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

District 3 is won (4.00 / 2)

Riley and Burzichelli have this District won.

It will not even be close.

This is Sweeney's District and the resources will flow to make sure all is well here.

Four Democratic Winners from "down south" are assured.

by: firstamend07 @ Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 21:02:02 PM UTC

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I know that "signs don't vote" (0.00 / 0)

But I and many other have their "Burzichelli Riley" signs, and I've been getting a fair number of mailers.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Fri Oct 09, 2009 at 21:06:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with you on this one (0.00 / 0)

Burzichelli and Riley are safe. There is no conceivable way that the GOP can unseat them, particularly with these nominees.

by: NJCentrist @ Sat Oct 10, 2009 at 20:24:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Endangered Democrats (4.00 / 1)

Other than Milam and Albano (who are probably headed for defeat, in my opinion) and Burzichelli and Riley (who are likely headed for victory, in my opinion), Shaftan also suggested GOP pickups in LD4 and LD6. LD4 is somewhat possible; Republicans would love to see Moriarty lose, his running mate, Bill Collins, is a political neophyte, ad the GOP has a pair of viable candidates. But Shaftan is full of it in his LD6 prediction. I would be extremely surprised if Greenwald and Lampitt lose. A far more likely GOP pickup in LD36, where Schaer and Scalera are probably on their way to losing to the GOP nominees, Diorio and Pio Costa. In LD14, Calabro and Harvey have a decent shot at Greenstein and DeAngelo, and in LD19, Piatkowski and Kothari could pull off a surprise upset and beat Wisniewski and his new running mate, Craig Coughlin, but I wouldn't put any money on it.

Ultimately, Shaftan is full of it and I don't believe any of his polls.

by: NJCentrist @ Sat Oct 10, 2009 at 20:45:40 PM UTC

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9th district (4.00 / 2)

Greetings from southern Ocean County. Democrats Visotcky and Rue are making a contest in this heavily Republican district by taking advantage of the Van Pelt resignation. They have signs all over the place and are making their presence felt. They also have support from disgruntled conservative Republicans anxious to give the corrupt Gilmore machine another black eye.

My guess is the GOP wins but the margin will be substantially less than previous years.

http://christiegonewild.blogsp...

by: ken bank @ Sun Oct 11, 2009 at 03:31:26 AM UTC

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I'm surprised (0.00 / 0)

the GOP hasn't moved to have DiAnne Gove sworn in yet. You'd think they'd want to give her the advantage of incumbency.

by: NJCentrist @ Sun Oct 11, 2009 at 14:39:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]