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FDU Poll shows Corzine in lead

by: Hopeful

Mon Oct 05, 2009 at 11:45:38 PM EDT



When I say lead, I mean the new FDU poll has Corzine 44, Christie 43.  This is a poll without Daggett. Daggett scores much higher when the pollster raises his name.

This the best number for Corzine all year.

I would caution that with margin of error and knowing what the other polls say, it's likely that Corzine is still behind and we got lucky.  But obviously further polls, and more importantly further campaigning, will tell.

I'll write more when the official release for FDU PublicMind poll is out.

Update: The poll report (PDF) is now released. It has 667 likely voters for a margin of error of 4%.  

On Daggett:

When Daggett's name is read in an interview along with Jon Corzine's and Chris Christie's name, Corzine leads Christie 38%-37% and Daggett gets 17% of the vote. Daggett attracts twice as many Democrats as Republicans. But when another independent candidate's name is read--in this case we chose Gary Steele--the effect is similar. Independent Gary Steele gets 12% of the vote while Corzine and Christie tie at 38%. Compared to 77% who say they've never heard of Daggett or have no opinion of him, 85% of likely voters say they have not heard of Steele and another 10% say they've heard of him but have no opinion.

While 7-in-10 can't name a winner in the recent gubernatorial debate, 14% say it was Daggett, 12% point to Corzine and 4% say Christie. More Democrats identify Corzine as the winner than identify Daggett as the winner, but about twice as many Republicans say Daggett was the winner as say Christie won. "The debate clearly increased Daggett's name recognition and doubled his favorable ratings," (to 23% from 12%) noted Woolley.

Hopeful :: FDU Poll shows Corzine in lead
On Corzine and Christie:

According to the most recent poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University's PublicMindâ„¢, Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine edges Republican challenger Chris Christie 44% to 43% among likely voters in the race for New Jersey governor. Another 4% volunteer they will vote for independent Chris Daggett and 5% say they are undecided. "With the start of an advertising blitz and the raw exposure of the debate, the race has tightened to a dead heat," said Peter Woolley, a political scientist and director of the poll.

Corzine's new poll position is reflected by a shift in secondary measures. Corzine has all but caught up to Christie (34%-36%) on the question of "which candidate better understands the concerns of the average person?" Asked which candidate is better described as "honest, trustworthy," a measure in which Christie originally led by 33%-24%, Corzine is now slightly ahead 31%-28%. Corzine continues to lead easily (45%-29) on the question of which candidate "has the background and experience to be a good governor."

Corzine comes out on the short end of several other ratings: 37% have a favorable opinion of him compared to 54% who have an unfavorable view. Just 23% say the state is moving in the right direction. Only 29% say Corzine is doing a good or excellent job as governor. And just 38% approve of his job performance, compared to 50% who disapprove - numbers essentially unchanged from a month ago. But three quarters (76%) of Democrats say they will vote for him, up slightly from 73% a month ago and from two-thirds (66%) in early summer. "Corzine is still swimming upstream against heavy currents," said Woolley. "Many Democrats are voting for him despite their misgivings."

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If they were in the field with this poll today.... (0.00 / 0)
I got a call. But once I answered "yes" to working on a political campaign they hung up on me. Sigh.... his number could have been higher than 44%.

Very weird Daggett wouldn't be included, he is very much a part of this race and will be a serious factor in the outcome.  


Taken with a grain of salt (0.00 / 0)
A poll without Daggett at this point isn't a realistic poll of the race, in my opinion.

Interested to see (0.00 / 0)
how the numbers change when Daggett is included, since the post says he does MUCH better. I do agree he clearly is a factor in the race, but who does he impact. Is it one candidate more than the other? Prior polls with him included tended to show he took votes from Christie. Of note though, I do think this is the first time that Corzine has had the lead in the campaign with any names included.

[ Parent ]
On Taxes,Christie caught in deception (0.00 / 0)
What a phony!

Here is what he said in Michael Symons article today: ""We're not promising to cut taxes in the first year. We're promising we're going to cut taxes over the four-year term," Christie said. "Because right now, with an $8 billion deficit, it's going to be very, very hard to accomplish in the short-term, to be able to do that in the first year I'm in office."

THIS IS EXACTLY WHAT HE HAD NOT SAID BEFORE!

He ridiculed Corzine when Corzine was telling him that the budget had to be balanced.

CHRISTIE HAS BEEN EXPOSED! HEWILL SAY ANYTHING AND DO ANYTHING TO GET ELECTED.

His Mushroom Farmer Strategy of "feed them s**t and keep them in the dark " has backfired.

The party is over for Chris Christie. He can't be trusted to even keep his word. This poll is the start of his steady decline.


For a challenger to win (4.00 / 2)
The incumbent should be going downard at this time, not up.  

Now that wasn't true of the 1993 race, which featured a late break to Whitman (to the detriment of all New Jerseyans and many New Yorkers too, as it would turn out)

When added to the fact that 'inevitable Christie' will get some bad press, this is good news for Corzine-Weinberg.

BTW, can I say what a joy it is seeing Loretta's Weinberg's name from Bergenfield to Paterson, to Ocean Grove to Egg Harbor.  that's all.    


Encouraging (0.00 / 0)
Although FDU's poll hasn't been the greatest.  This confirms the trend in the other polls.  

I'd take it that way too (0.00 / 0)
Christie really seems to be dropping.  

Corzine's 42 drops to 38 when Daggett is on the ballot. Fortunate that now Christie drops just as much.


Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch


[ Parent ]
Sean Darcy official statement (0.00 / 0)

Clearly, the only poll that matters is in November, but the trends are undeniable.  People across New Jersey are recognizing that Jon Corzine fights for what matters to New Jersey families.  He's gotten health care for almost 100,000 more kids.  He strongly supports a woman's right to choose and is one of a handful of governors to pass paid family leave that lets people care for newborns or sick relatives while still getting paid.

But the more people hear about Chris Christie the more they see the clear choice between these two candidates.  Christie opposes paid family leave and he would give insurance companies free rein to drop coverage for critical procedures like mammograms and autism treatments.  He supports a Constitutional amendment to ban abortion, and he sides with ultra-conservatives in refusing to support embryonic stem cell research, which could save lives.  Christie even opposes banning guns that fire bullets to pierce a cop's bulletproof vest.  Christie continues to show that he is extremely wrong when it matters most.



Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

Cryan statement (0.00 / 0)
"Today's poll shows the strength and ongoing support for Governor Jon S. Corzine, Senator Loretta Weinberg and the Democratic Party that continues to grow each day.

"Together, we are fighting for what matters most to New Jersey voters.

"New Jerseyans recognize that Jon Corzine is fighting for our families - he has ensured nearly 100,000 more New Jersey children have health coverage, he is a strong advocate for a woman's right to choose and is one of only a handful of governors who have made paid family leave the law to make sure New Jerseyans can care for newborns and sick relatives while still getting paid.

"Meanwhile, Christie continues to be wrong when it matters on the issues and values that are important to New Jersey families.

"As our campaign continues to expand we will continue to reach out to people across New Jersey - the more we spread the word about our work fighting protecting the values that matter most to working families the more support we gain - which will ensure victory for Governor Corzine and all Democrats across New Jersey this November 3."



Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

This Just Confirms What Is Obvious.... (0.00 / 0)
...the momentum has been going against Christie.

If Christie gets frightened and desperate enough to actually come out with specifics re his real agendas the momentum against him will only be accelerated..........unless he lies about his intentions, and then he needs to be called out.

More likely, Christie will become more negative in his attacks on Corzine.

All the more reason why Corzine needs to start delivering some truly damaging knockout punches along the lines I've suggested.

Waiting for Christie to get ugly and negative with a lot of made up bullshit will make any reactive counter punch seem less credible.

The stakes are too high for Corzine to listen to "the pros".  Running a cautious/conservative campaign runs the risk of giving the public a perception that none of the attacks that anyone is making are true...and that it's all bs.  

Corzine himself should come forward and make a strong and objectively factual case  that Christie is tempermentally and ethically unqualified for any elective office.   Waiting/hoping that the NJ media/blogosphere will do that job for him is risky.

Again, from my perspective, the BIGGEST rap on Corzine is that the public perceives him as weak.

Christie is a shit.  He truly is a shit.  

No woman who has ever been involved with (or knows of) an egotistical/aggressive/asshole should be voting for Christie (and I dare say that most women would know just what I'm talking about).

What I'm proposing is not that anyone lie/swift-boat.   Quite the contrary.  The objective case for Christie actually BEING an egotistical/aggressive/asshole is so overwhelming as to be painfully obvious.  

This would be emperor needs to be courageously called out on his attitude and his actions....and he needs to be strongly challenged from an aggressively progressive perspective.

If he somehow wins this election die to the risk averse squeamishness of the Corzine campaign it will be a major disaster for the people and the environment of our state.

 


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