| The conventional wisdom is that Chris Christie never should have (in theory) been leading by as much as he was early on. And maybe he would be leading by most of the percentage that Chris Daggett is getting if it was a 2 way race (even if polls don't totally show that). And maybe this is because of the "tried and true" meme that most in NJ don't pay attention until late and that the state almost always breaks for the Democratic candidate for various reasons.
But this time, there is a difference.
Jon Corzine's approval numbers are way lower than they should be for someone who is still very much in this race - and the one with momentum at this point. As hopeful pointed out, Corzine hasn't really moved that much in the polls either, and hasn't been above 42% at all. And granted, this is a 3 way race with a very dissatisfied electorate.
But, Christie was ahead by double digits as of a little more than a month ago, and well into the double digits over the summer. There are a number of things that I can think of (some even objectively), and what I think it comes down to is the following:
- The huge lead wasn't going to hold up over time anyway, but Christie has done a horrible job of managing expectations as the inevitable tightening of the race has occurred. I don't know if this matters much, but there is a perception that can be exploited.
- Christie hasn't done anything other to define himself other than "not Corzine", and is really trying to run out the clock. He has been slammed from all sides on this - Paul Mulshine hasn't let up from the right, nor have the "Lonegan conservatives". And while those of us on the left certainly haven't either, he has let Corzine define him through a series of negative ads.
- Christie hasn't really done much to counter this defining by Corzine - when you bill yourself as the "white knight who is tough on crime" and all of the cracks in your armor start appearing over and over and over, that aura is not only punctured, but it calls other things into question.
- Christie hasn't helped himself with his actions and temperament. When the "shared values" section of his website with his right wing "credentials" disappeared and then reappeared, he blew it off. When he was challenged on the deferred prosecution agreements, he blew it off and got defensive and angry. When he was called on his abuse of office and power, he blew it off. When he was called on his promises that were out of sync with reality, he blew it off. When he was called on his views of health care and mandates, he got defensive and angry.
Those are a few off the top of my head, and I am sure there are more (and better ones). But when Christie (1) doesn't really define himself other than trying to be both very conservative and very moderate at the same time, (2) doesn't have a plan for just about anything that is realistic (you can't cut taxes and cut enough spending and refuse stimulus funds and balance the budget), (3) is out of step with what many NJ families want (either conservative or progressive) and (4) get angry or defensive when challenged on anything - well that is a recipe for disaster, even in a "red state".
Here in NJ, he may well end up losing by 5 points if he keeps this up. Tonight's debate is way more critical for him than it is for either Corzine or Daggett. He has to reverse the downward spiral of his campaign if he wants to win. My guess is that Daggett will more than hold his own, Corzine will do fine and both will be hitting Christie hard tonight.
For his own sake, Christie better be prepared and better not lose his cool. |
