What questions should pollsters ask? That's the question raised by Monmouth University pollster Patrick Murray in his post "'Tis the Season to be Silly". Now, I think it's great that Murray analyzes polls and expresses his opinions online. (I linked to the same post last week because it also has important commentary about media coverage.) It seems Murray is outraged by Tom Jensen of Public Policy Policy's latest New Jersey poll:
As contributors to the chattering class, we pollsters also have a responsibility to keep what's truly important in our sights. That means not just measuring voter opinion of the nonsense being fed to them by scripted campaigns, but actually giving voice to what the voters themselves want to know about how this state will be governed over the next four years. Like tracking the fact that property taxes is consistently the top issue voters want to hear the candidates talk about.
I understand that a pollster can generate headlines - and perhaps clients - by asking what would happen if Corzine were replaced on the ballot by another candidate - as one out-of-state Democratic pollster did recently. [Although, it is intriguing that this partisan pollster did not include Dick Codey as one of the options - the only name that probably would have bested Christie in the poll]. However, these poll results do nothing to inform the debate for those of us who actually live in the state and are concerned about how we are going to pay our bills, such as - to use an entirely random example - property taxes.
Perhaps the most bizarre example of measuring New Jersey public opinion was a recent question asking if President Obama is the anti-Christ. If this polling firm really wanted to be relevant to the current state of affairs in New Jersey, it should have asked whether the state's voters believe any of the gubernatorial nominees is the anti-Christ. That's certainly how each candidate hopes his opponent will be perceived by November 3rd.
You'll notice that Murray uses the media establishment technique of never naming the person (Tom Jensen) he's criticizing -- implicitly placing their action beyond the pale. You'd never guess from this column that Monmouth/Gannett's release that week was Jersey to Bruce: Keep Rocking! (PDF). This week's release is more consistent with Murray's stated principles, New Jerseyans on Their Property Taxes (PDF).
But the more interesting question is how do pollsters choose their topics? Both the PPP and Monmouth/Gannett polls have actually answered the question. Tom Jensen has written about the origin of the Anti-Christ Question following the Joe Wilson affair:
One of the suggestions was that we poll on this question of whether Barack Obama is the Anti-Christ. We couldn't get it on the Wilson poll due to length considerations, but I got several follow up e-mails and messages on Twitter from people saying they really did think we should ask it, so we did...
Anyway, our company really is trying to find an intersection between high quality, accurate scientific polling and genuine utilization of social media. So the moral of the story is send us your crazy question idea and we really might ask it.
You can see the actual suggestion from a reader here:
One other suggestion, although it's a little frivoulous:
Do you believe Barack Obama is the Antichrist?
(I've always wanted to push slightly beyond the 'birther' stuff to see if this is what's really driving a portion of the population.)
In short, PPP's question actually is something their audience wanted, and while it may not exactly be "giving voice to what the voters themselves want to know," it's not far off. I'll certainly agree it's too bad no one told PPP to add Dick Codey when they asked for comments n their New Jersey questions.
Now, let's see what the Monmouth/PPP release states on the origin of their topics. For the Bruce Springsteen poll, it's near the end of the release:
Monmouth University will be hosting Glory Days: A Bruce Springsteen Symposium at its campus in West Long Branch, New Jersey on September 25th to 27th. The event will bring together educators, journalists, historians, musicologists, and fans interested in Bruce Springsteen and his influence on American culture. It will also include musical performances and tours of important Springsteen sites. Tickets for the symposium and the performances are available to the public. For more information, please visit: www.cpe.vt.edu/glorydays.
Yes, in the same week Patrick Murray criticized Tom Jensen for a "bizarre" poll that it is not "responsible" and was aimed to "make headlines," he put out a poll that is literally an advertisement. (Indeed, I could argue the question was chosen to favor Bruce, because Sinatra would have done well if it was not restricted to "rock performer," and the Beatles were split into three different responses.) As for his much vaunted tax poll, it appears from that release that Gannett chose the topic to, at least in part, advertise their newspaper:
As part of the Gannett New Jersey newspaper series "Fighting New Jersey's Tax Crush" (www.app.com/TaxCrush), the Monmouth University/Gannett New Jersey Poll took a wide-ranging look at public views of the tax that 6-in-10 Garden State residents tab as the least fair tax they pay.
Well, if Monmouth and Gannett pay the bills, it's appropriate they choose the topics, but Murray should spare us the sanctimonious lectures. |
