| Do you recognize these numbers?
32
33,33
34
35,35,35,35
36,36,36
37,37,37,37
38,38,38,38,38,38,38,38
39,39,39,39,39
40,40,40,40
41,41,41,41
42,42,42
These are the percentage of New Jersey voters -- in the 39 different polls taken this year by 11 different polling companies -- who say they will vote for Governor Jon Corzine when matched up against Chris Christie, or Chris Christie plus Chris Daggett.
There is not a single poll all year where Jon Corzine does more than 4 points better than the median (and average, and mode) of 38, and only three (less than 10%) where he does more than 4 points worse. In contrast, Christie's numbers have a huge variation. While it's pretty plain Christie went up in the polls and then slid back a bit, I honestly think Corzine's numbers have not budged all year -- we just see random variations due to sampling and differences in polling techniques.
I think it follows that nothing in these nine-and-half months of campaigning has convinced anyone to get out and cast a positive vote for Jon Corzine. That's why I think more negative advertising is not enough, somehow a powerful positive message has to get through the clutter. Easier said than done, and I appreciate the campaign's efforts so far, but I think the polls say the Democratic and unaffiliated voters that have cast votes for Corzine, Obama, and so many other Democrats in the past need to be inspired. |
