South Jersey poll

by: Hopeful

Fri Sep 18, 2009 at 04:13:18 PM EDT

At last, our moment in the Sun! The William J. Hughes Center for Public Policy at the Richard Stockton College of New Jersey has commissioned a poll of South Jersey. Unfortunately, the poll is by Zogby, a polling company that has earned a pretty bad reputation online. At least this is a telephone poll -- not an online survey -- of 601 likely voters. Also unfortunate is that the original press release does not appear to be online yet, so I am relying an excellent article by the Press of Atlantic City:

The top headline is that Christie leads Corzine and Daggett 37-30-9. Lots of undecideds: both major candidate are about eight points below their statewide averages. Perhaps different methodology, or would you believe South Jersey voters are more thoughtful than our northern neighbors? Various questions on what influences the vote were asked but I don't think any of the answers are surprising or interesting.

At first I thought the exciting bit is that there are results for five South Jersey Assembly Races: LD1, LD2, LD3, LD4 and LD9. But wait, if the entire sample is 600 likely voters, then the samples per district will be about 100, and margin of error is over 10%! Click to the P of AC to learn the numbers, but with that margin of error the only legitimate results are that Nelson Albano (D-LD1) at 53% and John Burzichelli (D-LD3) at 42% are safe. Everything else is worthless.

I'm in LD3, and I've had workers for Burzichelli and the newly appointed Celeste Riley come to my door so hopefully they are not taking anything for granted. Her 21% leaves her more-or-less tied with the two unknown Republicans at 24% and 21%. Not what I want to see in an area that loves splitting the ticket, but not too surprising for a new candidate before the campaign really gets going.

Hopeful :: South Jersey poll

Tags: LD1, LD2, LD3, LD4, LD9, SOUTH JERSEY, poll, John Burzichelli, Celeste Fisher, Nelson Albano, (All Tags)

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South Jersey poll | 1 comments

Mostly Good news (4.00 / 1)

The sampling does appear too small,but never the less the numbers are encouraging.

The first surprise was at how many people in the Governors race are still undecided. For us political junkies this is a wake up call. Most people it seems don't pay much attention to all of this until October. The other thing that struck me is that there appears to be little enthusiasm for either candidate.

If like me you work with "regular' people ,who are not politically active, there appears to be no passion in this election.

I was very happy to see what is occuring in LD #1 . For those of you in the rest of the State who don't know both Matt Milam and Nelson Albano I want to tell you these two leading in a very Republican District is no fluke. Like their senior partner Jeff Van Drew ,these two never stop working.

Riley trailing in LD #3 is probably a polling error .However it should also add some "push" in that District. It would not look very good for State Senator Sweeney to lose a seat in his home District. I would expect some more effort here. Riley is still an unknown.

Overall the South appears "soft" for Christie. If Corzine can convince the voters not to ticket split and support him along with the Democratic incumbents then Christie might just lose an area he was confident in winning a few months ago.

by: firstamend07 @ Sat Sep 19, 2009 at 12:59:13 PM UTC