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One Reason Why Corzine Is Losing

by: princetonblue

Tue Jul 07, 2009 at 12:56:46 AM EDT



Ok, now that I've got your attention, let me explain.  One of the rules of politics is to consolidate your base.  Polls show college faculty are one of the most liberal groups with about 90% of them Democrats.  In NJ, most public college faculty (about 10,000 total is my estimate) are in the AFT union.  So in a close election, you'd like to secure that base.  Currently the state and the AFT are in negotiations to reach an contract modification (involving furloughs for example) in order to reach the budget savings required by the state budget.  Given that AFT always follows the agreement that CWA negotiates, you would think that the state would offer the AFT the same agreement they just reached with the CWA.

For reasons only known to the political wizards in the Governor's campaign, their best offer to the AFT has been for a 20% greater pay-cut than for CWA (4.6% vs. 3.84%).  And in addition, the granting of future paid vacation days as compensation for the furlough days  (a gimmick I agree, but one given to CWA) has been eliminated.  

Such offers contradict the language in the state budget bill, which calls for the same percentage of savings from college faculty as from other unions, not greater ones.  Now the AFT is the smallest and weakest of the state unions, so the state apparently believes it can away with this approach.  Personally I don't see the benefit for not offering an equivalent deal.  The monetary savings are minimal and the Governor would still be able to say that all workers had to take furlough days and the same cut in salary.

Instead, having just read my union's list-serv, I see a bunch of very disgruntled faculty, with several suggesting political protests be undertaken.   They feel the Governor is continuing a campaign of dismantling public higher education in New Jersey and has intentionally targeted college faculty.  This is not how to consolidate what should be a very loyal part of your base.

Why would the Corzine pick this fight when he's in a close election?  It only costs him votes of AFT members.   The general population cares only about the CWA agreement since they are the largest union.  

Best,
pb

*** Note: I'm pleased to report that the state subsequently offered AFT an agreement equivalent to the one offered to CWA ***

princetonblue :: One Reason Why Corzine Is Losing
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Hmmm........ (0.00 / 0)
I'd say there are a lot of reasons while the Governor is down in the polls, but this probably isn't in my top ten.  College faculty makes up such a minimal part of the electorate I would make an educated guess that they aren't swaying an election one way or the other.  Additionally, even if Corzine did slight college faculty, are they really going to vote for Chris Chistie? Doubtful.  

Not a Winning Strategy (0.00 / 0)

So your strategy is to tick-off parts of your base that are small and assume that they'll vote for you regardless?  This is why Corzine is in trouble.  There are many different parts of his base (broadly defined) and the polls indicate dissatisfaction by many of them with the Governor.

I doubt many of my colleagues will vote for Christie, but many of them simply won't show up on election day.  For myself, I will vote for Christie (something I never thought a sane person would) if the Governor keeps insisting on this plan.

-pb


[ Parent ]
Does Christie (0.00 / 0)
have a plan for negotiating with the AFT?

[ Parent ]
On Christie (0.00 / 0)

Christie is an idiot, and I sure hope he doesn't become Governor.   But this race is not about rationality.   It's about people being disappointed in the Governor's performance and how they are getting treated.  I may think Gov. Corzine's policies might be better, but if he's played games with me, I'm not going to be such a great supporter of his.

-pb


[ Parent ]
All is Resolved (4.00 / 1)

I'm happy to report that the state came to its senses yesterday and offered AFT an equivalent agreement to the CWA one.  

It's still disappointing that the state went out of its way to jerk us around for a few months first.   You just don't treat people like that unless you have good reason (and the state didn't here).

-pb


Answer: Property Taxes (0.00 / 0)
Corzine was told by voters upon election what the major issue was.   Property taxes.  There is nothing that can be linked to Corzine improving this situation. There was supposed to be a special session, that failed.  To me its not a shock that he is down in the polls.   It's like 'Doctor I told you I had a pain on my right side, after leaving your office I still have it!'

So Corzine 2009 will come down to we are better than Christie.  And he WILL pull it off - but it is needlessly close.

The state, led by Corzine, continues to think they can compartmentalize the taxes and that voters will not see property taxes as a State of NJ problem...to put the onus on mayors and towns when so many of a town's expenses are a result of state regulation, mandate or court enforced spending.

The cutting or threatened cutting of rebates has angered voters.   Also state aid to towns was cut, which sounds like an extra expense but is really a direct increase in property taxes.  

Sorry for the situation with your union.  As a Stockton grad I had many good AFT-member teachers.   In the end of the day though it is a negotiation, and I doubt the governors campaign people make those calls - I hope they don't -- The size of your union is i'm sure a factor - he saves more with the 3.7% cut given the number of people in CWA - basic labor economics.  May not be fair, but each union is negotiated seperately.

 2009 is a 'Thank God I have a Job' year.  This is probably not the best time to go to the political arena with complaints about contracts.   The private vs. public sector comparison is much better these days.   Unions will normally counter with - "we don't make the money in the good years," but this time is unique --  the private sector where the lion's share of the ungodly money was made - finance- has collapsed, and so its just the lower profit business in the private sector keeping people employed now.  In my own private sector job a 5% salary cut was mandated -- no negotiating, just done -- since January.   The NJ transit bus I take is getting emptier and emptier as the ranks of the unemployed swell.   I don't want to tell anyone not to protest but in my opinion not the best time.  

   


Pay Cuts (3.00 / 1)

Thanks for your comments.   For AFT members, the problem was less about the pay cuts (we knew they were coming), but being treated disrespectfully and second class compared to other unions.   Gov. Corzine wants to be the "Education Governor", and to then go after college professors for the largest pay cuts seemed wrong to all of us.

I'm glad it has been settled.   It was a needless dispute.  

-pb


[ Parent ]
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