| The headline from today's Quinnipiac poll of New Jersey is that Jon Corzine trails Chris Christie 40-50. That's actually a "likely voter" model, which many people say is not appropriate for a June poll, so if you'd like to compare to previous polls the numbers for registered voters are 37-46. In other words, I'd say the poll looks just like all the other ones this year.
I see on other websites that many progressives still like to talk about how "Democrats always trail in New Jersey." Well, that's the exaggerated version, actually it's just that Democrats have underperformed in early polls in the last decade. I want to point out the numbers for other politicians to show why that's not what we're seeing this time:
Barack Obama is very popular (but isn't a local guy):
Obama: Approve 68%, Disapprove 25%.
Senators Lautenberg and Menendez look like normal Democrats:
Lautenberg: Approve 44%, Disapprove 36%
Menendez: Approve 40%, Disapprove 31%
Notice that they're in net positive territory, but well below 50%. That's why they win elections, but don't poll very high to start.
Now Jon Corzine:
Corzine: Approve 36%, Disapprove 56%
There's no doubt Corzine can come back -- there's plenty of time -- but he is a very weak position. |
