| Governor Jon Corzine's poor showing in 2009 polls has led many observers think of the great 1977 come-back campaign of Governor Brendan Byrne. Don't forget that this was another age, but a recognizable one: The big issue was the new income tax (of 2.0 to 2.5%) , the related new property tax rebate checks that arrived just in time for the election season, and a controversial suggestion that the sales tax be raised (above 5%) instead. Public financing was a new experiment, and observers were impressed by the fact that both campaigns spent a million dollars. The Giants had just moved to New Jersey -- but didn't change their name! Both candidates promised a New Jersey television station. Democrats outnumbered Republicans 2-1 in registrations, but New Jersey had gone for Republican Gerald Ford in 1976. The New York Times observed the campaign was the first to make major use of "electronic media," meaning radio and television ads.
If you were around then, you may remember Bateman's lead in the polls, which was mentioned nearly every day in the papers, but in fact there were only six independent polls matching up Byrne and Bateman in the entire campaign. That's one fewer than we have already have for 2009. Still, as we'll see below, there's good evidence Byrne really did start way behind.
The Winter (and Spring) of New Jersey's Discontent
January and April polls by Eagleton-Rutgers were brutal for Governor Byrne, with more than 70% of adults disapproving of his performance.
| Month | Good/Excellent | Fair/Poor |
|---|
| Jan. | 22 | 71 | | Apr | 17 | 75 |
Various Democrats told reporters that their internal polls confirmed these numbers. Nevertheless, the governor decided to run for re-election. His weakness attracted eleven other candidates on the ballot, which oddly enough allowed him to win the June primary despite only getting 32% of the vote. Raymond Bateman easily took the Republican nomination, beating future governor Tom Kean.
The Fall Campaign
The campaign featured independent polls sponsored by Eagleton-Rutgers, Gannett, and the New York Times/Channel 2. Early polls also included three-way results, but independent candidate Anthony Imperiale dropped out by September 19 in order to not hurt Bateman, so I haven't listed them. (Imperiale had even claimed he was ahead of Byrne in his own internal polls only a few weeks before, but I don't think anyone should take that seriously.) I have listed both registered voters and Byrne started out ten points behind in August -- or worse if you believe the likely voter screen -- and was about the same in late September. Byrne pulled ahead in October and won comfortably. My table includes two leaked internal polls that only gave margins, and for one of the Gannett polls I also only have the margins.
| Date | Type | Byrne | Bateman | Lead | Sponsor |
|---|
| 18-29 July | RV | 37 | 47 | -10 | Eagleton-Rutgers |
| 18-29 July | LV | 36 | 53 | -17 | Eagleton-Rutgers |
| 20-27 Sep | RV | 39 | 46 | -7 | Eagleton-Rutgers |
| Late Sep | ? | ? | ? | -12 | Gannett |
| mid Oct | ? | ? | ? | -5 | Republican Internal |
| mid Oct | ? | ? | ? | -5 | Democratic Internal |
| 15-19 Oct | RV | 40 | 40 | 0 | NYT/Channel 2 |
| 15-19 Oct | LV | 43 | 43 | 0 | NYT/Channel 2 |
| 29-30 Oct | ? | 43 | 42 | +1 | Gannett |
| 24 Oct - 1 Nov | RV | 44 | 36 | +8 | Eagleton-Rutgers |
On November 8, Byrne crushed Bateman, winning 54.5% to 40.9% (if I got the right numbers), which means the incredible movement upwards for Byrne in October continued during the first week of November. Plainly Byrne got the votes of many people who had thought he did only a fair job, whch is usually considered "disapproval." Bateman's support never reached 50% -- unless you believe the July "most likely to vote" screen -- and instead slowly slipped during the campaign, which featured heavy ads, a Presidential visit, and multiple debates. I'll discuss in a later article what journalists said at the time to explain why Democrats and independents came home to Byrne in the end.
The data is all gathered from 1977 articles in the New York Times. I'd like to give special thanks to the late reporter Joseph F. Sullivan, whose coverage was gripping even across the divide of three decades. |
