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Polling & New Jersey

by: Matthew Jordan

Thu Feb 12, 2009 at 11:04:20 PM EST

Promoted by Jason Springer: I hope you're right. People better get busy defining Christie, before he gets the chance to tell the story his own way.

Polling in New Jersey is the definition of an inexact science. Consistently Democrats do not poll well with voters in the run up to elections, but usually come away with solid victories.

There are several factors that go into why this happens. For one, the Democrats simply have a stronger ground game than the Republicans. Democrats have a registration advantage and voters in New Jersey have been hesitant to vote for Republicans on the statewide level. While Democrats have been expanding their message to diverse parts of the state, Republicans are essentially targeting one voting bloc: white middle, to upper class voters.

The recent Quinnipiac Poll with hypothetical match ups between Corzine and potential Republican challengers are especially flawed for several reasons.

Matthew Jordan :: Polling & New Jersey

In the poll Christie has a 6% advantage over Corzine, 44-38, a 6-point swing from a November 19th poll. The most glaring problem of this poll is based in question #5:

"Is your opinion of -- Christopher Christie favorable, unfavorable, or haven't heard enough about him?"

Favorable- 31%
Unfavorable- 7%
Haven't Heard Enough - 61%

Based on this poll more than half of the voters of the state haven't heard enough about Christie to form an opinion about him. What does this mean? Over the next 9 months Corzine has the opportunity to define what type of person Christie is, and what kind of governor he would be if elected.

Christie has a lot of negatives that have yet to become a narrative of his media coverage; Corzine has consistently outspent is opponents in past elections, and there is no reason to think he won't do the same thing in 2009 to define what kind of governor Christie would be.

The beauty of Steve Lonegan running in the primary election is that: a) he will do most of the dirty work for Corzine & the Democrats and begin the process of airing out his dirty laundry; or b) he will force Christie take more conservative positions that are out of touch with New Jersey voters.

Although the media wants to talk about how Christie has a 6% advantage because it grabs headlines, the important part of this poll was question #5, and the opportunity it gives Corzine to define his opponent.

Tags: Quinnipiac poll, gubernatorial election, 2009, Chris Christie, Jon Corzine, (All Tags)

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Polling & New Jersey | 7 comments

I hope you're right (0.00 / 0)

I don't think it can be denied that this is not where Corzine would like to start.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 07:43:48 AM UTC

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Polling in New Jersey..... (0.00 / 0)

always seems closer than it is in reality.

Our friend Markos often writes about the perils of the NJ GOP:

http://thehill.com/markos-moul...

by: Matthew Jordan @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 14:18:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Rationalization and complacency (3.00 / 3)

It is this type of thinking that worries me. Polling indeed might be a little inaccurate but what is known is that right now, on Friday the 13th there is a very good possiblity that Corzine would lose to Christie.

I also see nothing between now and the July 1 budget deadline that will make Corzine one percentage point more popular.

The poll must be taken seriously and a full blown campaign effort should begin.

Corzine better wake up or else just take the Commerce job in Washington and get out of New Jersey before we get stuck with Christie as Governor.

by: firstamend07 @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 16:10:24 PM UTC

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http://www.bluejersey.com/showDiary.do;jsessionid=E6986CAB8CBBE53259686CB67627BE59?diaryId=10465 (0.00 / 0)

But to address your points:

1. It isn't about Corzine getting more popular, its about Christie getting less popular.

2. The election is 9 months away. A political eternity, once the 61% of New Jersey voters get to know who Christie is, the poll will change.

Corzine will give voters $55 million reasons why Christie wouldn't be a good governor.

by: Matthew Jordan @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 16:44:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I gotta go with firstamend07 (0.00 / 0)

Of course it's easy to think of scenarios where Corzine wins -- he did before, after all. Perhaps a negative campaign will work; but we need to incease excitement for Corzine, and negative campaigns can backfire.

But I'm most concerned with this story that Democrats will always pull it out in the end. "Blue states" that don't elect Republican Senators often elect Republican governors: Whitman, Pataki, Arnold, Rowland, Rell. Right now the polls say Independents are not with Corzine.

Frank LoBiondo Record and Jon Runyan Watch

by: Hopeful @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 17:49:41 PM UTC

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It's not even about Corzine going negative (0.00 / 0)

once people know more about Christie it is inevitable that his numbers will go down.

by: Matthew Jordan @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 18:19:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It Shouldn't Even Be Close.... (4.00 / 1)

Christie is a hack. He's a Bushie. Christie is a hypocrite. Christie is a creature of pay to play. Christie is a phony. Christie is a threat to all that is good about living in NJ.

Having said that, Corzine is vulnerable (for all manner of reasons); especially if Christie brings a smart, charismatic, ambitious and attractive Jenifer Beck on board. Beck is Palin with a brain.

In a conventional race in which each side tries to destroy the other; Corzine will likely eke out a victory because, frankly....the Republicans are the greater evil. And 40 to 50 mil buys lots of media.......If Corzine decides to sincerely change his tune at a core/gut level and to throw the machine pols "under the bus" by truly backing up his anti-pay to play rhetoric with substantial and concrete reforms and legislative agendas; he wins in a landslide and spends half as much money to achieve that end. (Andm by the way, NJ gets a much better governor in the process!!!).

by: Nick Lento @ Fri Feb 13, 2009 at 18:32:40 PM UTC

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Polling & New Jersey | 7 comments