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Are we going to get ripped off?

by: Hopeful

Wed Feb 11, 2009 at 03:25:44 PM EST



There was another bit of news Senator Bob Menendez was involved in yesterday.  The blog Firedoglake made a (rough, live) transcript of Treasury Secretary Geithner's testimony before the Banking Committee, and Jane Hamsher says "Geithner started to get tripped up" by Senator Bob Menendez:

MENENDEZ:  How much of public/private is going to be public and how much is going to be private?  Valuation?

GEITHNER:  We're going to ask banks for a plan of what they are going to do with the money, then they're going to have to report on a monthly basis and we're going to let the public see that.  

MENENDEZ:  Can you talk to us about asset valuations?

GEITHNER:  "Absolutely enormously difficult to decide on a mechanism that will give us confidence that the values are fair and realistic, and that the government understands the risks we are assuming.  There are no perfect ways to do this.  One approach is for the government to decide.  One approach is for the government to use independent model based estimates for valuation.  We are concerned  neither of those two approaches would give us the level of comfort we need, so instead what we propose to do is design a fund that can have private capital come in along side government financing and use that as a way to help solve this valuation problem.  And we believe doing it that way will leave us with better protections against the risk in making these basic judgments independently on our own.

"Now no process is perfect, and you're right to ask what is the risk and return for the government in this area. One of the reasons why weay this out in general terms today, is because this is enormously complicated to get right, and we're going to try to get it right before we layout the details."

Menendez got to the key question, which I translate to: Are we going to get ripped off because we don't know what price to pay?  It seems to me that Geithner's strategy of bringing in partners is a plausible way of improving our offers to the banks, but at this point I have little faith in these assurances.  We know the TARP oversight board believes we overpaid last year for these assets.  One problem is that I'm not confident these so-called "partners" aren't ripping us off too.  I hope Senator Menendez and everyone else in Congress continues to push on this key question. Calls to "give Geithner a break are unwise.

 

Hopeful :: Are we going to get ripped off?
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Geithner wants to give the BANKS a break (4.00 / 1)
Part of the problem with valuation and a public-private partnership is that it encourages a higher price since "we've" got the deep pockets.  Are we splitting the profits when they do materialize or will the private capital get all the profits and we get all the junk?  Just another of the unanswered questions.

I still believe that it would have been better (and would be better NOW) to have taken ALL the subprime ($600 billion or so) and "nationalized" it.  Fannie or Freddie could service it, we could reduce the interest rates, and make money on the good stuff (probably even convert a sizable amount to prime mortgages).  Then, declaring all the CDSs as paid off because they didn't default would unwind these "weapons of mass financial destruction."

If we're putting in literally trillions (between before and now), we could also nationalize the municipal bond and credit card markets as well.  If the banks don't want to handle it, then we take the good with the bad and make the profits that would come about while restoring "confidence" to the markets.  Later on, when things get back to "normal," we can sell pieces.

*full disclosure:  I have a subprime mortgage for less than 80% of my home's value that I am current on.


"Got Kids Plan" Wins the Day (0.00 / 0)
Sorry for the shameless plug but I honestly think I called this one months ago.

I propose what Geithner's Toxic Asset Plan announcement and the precipitious drop in the market proves is that Trial Balloons in times of economic crisis are not comforting. Next time we will be sure to get the porige Juuuuuust Right!

Best regards.


I Screwed Up! (0.00 / 0)
I screwed up my link but it is working properly now. Sorry for the inconvenience.

[ Parent ]
actually (hate to bust your bubble) (0.00 / 0)
but the crux of the whole issue is whether buying the toxic assets is the way to go and for what price.

If you buy at the banks's valuation, then you are certainly overpaying with taxpayer dollars and avoiding any penalty for the banks.

If you buy at the market's valuation, then a lot of banks are going to be underwater.  It may be better to rip the scab off, but it is going to hurt.

If you "nationalize" a whole class of debt, then you do get the good with the "bad."  This is the model with the S&L crisis.

Simply putting capital in the banks (unless you have the will to put in rigorous conditions) doesn't get you very far.

None of these are perfect, but Obama deserves credit for moving forward.


[ Parent ]
Correct me if I'm wrong (0.00 / 0)
But listing the debt on a separate exchange does not mean we buy them coming out of the barn. (I'll have to confirm this comports with the plan) We may need to buy the Truly Toxic assests, but again we will know who SOLD them and from whom to get our MONEY BACK.



[ Parent ]
Shoot! (0.00 / 0)
Also, the founding father of Hedge Funds has already volunteerd (there is that curiuos word again) to "pull" the pools of securitizations apart.

Too bad his offer to serve has fallen on deaf ears.


[ Parent ]
unless you can prove fraud (0.00 / 0)
which is VERY different from "a stupid deal that a fifth grader wouldn't have done" you aren't going to get any money back from anybody.

[ Parent ]
The Devil is in the Code. (0.00 / 0)
The programs that processed mortgage applications and spit out the results in 30 min's or less is where I would start.

Don't be surprised if Bank of America, Ken Lewis, Countrywide Financial and Greg Mozilla is where we End.


[ Parent ]
I'll ask the stupid question (0.00 / 0)
Exactly what conduct do you believe violated which federal statute?

[ Parent ]
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