Sat Feb 07, 2009 at 05:29:04 PM EST
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| Although every senator gets one and only one vote, some senators are more equal than others thanks to the seniority system. This is mainly important in the committee system, so ranking in your own party may be more important than your overall ranking. Wikipedia has a complete list of Senate seniority, so I thought I would look into where our senators stand and what their prospects are.
Currently New Jersey's senior senator, Frank Lautenberg, sits at #61 overall and #36 for Democrats based on his start date of January 3, 2003. The only benefit from his years of prior service is that, in a tie-breaker worthy of the NFL, he is put ahead of the five other remaining members first elected in 2002. (If his previous service counted, he would be somewhere in the neighborhood of #13-18 and in charge of a committee instead of Joe Lieberman. By the way, I'm including Lieberman as a Democrat because his seniority counts in the caucus.)
The junior senator, Bob Menendez, sits at #74 overall and #38 for Democrats. (Yes, he's only two behind Lautenberg in the Democratic caucus: The elections of 2002 and 2004 were not good for our party.) This is actually a pretty good rise: In only three years, Senator Menendez now is ahead of a quarter of the other senators overall and a third of Democrats. That's thanks to many Republican retirements and defeats in 2006 and 2008, the triumph of the Obama-Biden ticket, and Obama's appointments of senior senators to Cabinet positions. Below the flip, we'll see how the future looks. |
| Hopeful :: Seniority |
| Bob Menendez can expect to continue to rise in the next two years. If Gregg (#30) is confirmed, that is one spot immediately, though a Coleman victory in his lawsuit (however unlikely) would knock Menendez (but not Lautenberg) back down. Republican senators Bond (#22), Brownback (#39), Voinovich(#52) and Martinez (#73) have all announced their retirements in 2010. It's also widely believed that Hutchinson (#34) will retire in 2009 or 2010 to run for Governor of Texas. So those quite solid prospects would put Menendez at #68, even without any more retirements or defeated incumbents. Republicans are also trying to encourage Bunning (#49) to retire, and regardless of that I think both Bunning and Vitter (#72) are unlikely to survive both the primary and general elections. That makes Mendendez #66 in 2011 with a bit of luck. You could certainly point to a few more Republicans who might face trouble be re-elected or make a surprise retirement, but let's leave it at #66 for now.
On the Democratic side, I think it is unfortunately very probable that the great Ted Kennedy (#2) will no longer be serving in 2011. There may be another Obama appointment out of the Senate -- Wyden is interested in HHS. In the longer term, as we look at the elderly senators, it seems very unlikely that Byrd (#1) will run again in 2012. Inouye(#3) says he will run again in 2010 even though he will be 86. I doubt Akaka (#26) or Lautenberg (#61) will run again in 2012 and 2014, but you never know. Perhaps Feinstein will run for Governor of California. Overall, it seems that few Democrats will retire while they enjoy power, and while the political environment may change by 2010, it doesn't seem like any senior Democrats are in trouble for re-election.
I conclude that Menendez is likely to rise to at least #65 in 2011, possibly higher, but will have little change in his Democratic ranking. Looking at Menendez's Committee Assignments, we can see that he stuck in the middle in his committees and has little prospect of leading one soon. In the long term, since he is only 55 years old, New Jersey Democrats have a huge registration advantage and historical advantage in Senate elections, and is senior to a third of the caucus, it seems likely he will rise high in twenty years. |
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