NJ8

What’s happening with Formula 1? Can’t get straight answers.

As a Hudson County resident, I’ve been following the Formula 1 updates and news closely.  I live in WNY, and the race is greatly going to affect my way of life for a few weeks.

If you’ve read the articles closely, you will see information varies greatly and often don’t provide facts to back up the claims of the Formula One officials.  We keep hearing about a contract having been signed.  I searched for it online and called WNY and Weehawken for more information, I found nothing.

Am I safe? I feel like cars racing at such high speeds should be in an enclosed track, not my skinny side street.

I hope officials in the area (legislators, freeholders and mayor/commissioners) get down to the bottom of this. I don’t have confidence that this race will happen or will be beneficial to my town.

I urge folks to ask their elected officials questions about this race. Let’s make sure we are doing the right thing for New Jersey before jumping into a disaster.  

Rating How Competitive New Jersey Congressional Districts Are: Nate Silver’s PPI Index

Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com has just introduced his new “Partisan Propensity Index” (PPI). If you’ve been following elections closely, you’re probably already familiar with the Partisan Voting Index (PVI) from Cook, and similar statistics from Swing State Project. Cook’s idea is to look at how each Congressional District voted for President compared to the nationwide average. So, for example, the NJ5 district (Garrett’s) is rated R+7, meaning it voted 7 points more Republican than nationwide, while NJ13 (Sire’s) is rated D+21. You can see why Democrats had such a hard time even with a good candidate against Garrett, and why Republicans didn’t seriously contest NJ13 when Menendez left it. Unlike Congressional races, where often one candidate is hardly covered in the news and has hardly any campaign budget, the two party’s Presidential candidates are well known. The PVI index is widely used to identify competitive districts.  

Here’s Silver’s idea:

Are there any systematic differences in the ways that votes tend to fall for the Congress, as opposed to the Presidency? Are certain districts better or worse for Democrats, or Republicans, than PVI alone would suggest?

It turns out that there’s one other factor which is fairly useful to look at, which is socioeconomic status. Relative to how they do for the Presidency, Democrats are somewhat more likely to win races for Congress in poorer districts, and somewhat more likely to lose them in wealthier ones. Another way to put this is that a split ticket of Republican for President, Democrat for Congress is more likely to occur in a poor district, whereas a split ticket of Democrat for President, Republican for Congress is more likely to occur in a wealthy one.

Click through for the statistical analysis he uses. Silver expresses his PPI index as the chance for Democrats to win an open seat in an average election cycle, based solely on two factors: the recent Presidential Vote and the percentage of the population with incomes under $25,000/yr.  Here are the results for New Jersey:

District Name PVI PPI
NJ11 Frelinhguysen R+7 2.5%
NJ5 Garrett R+7 3.2%
NJ4 Smith R+6 10.9%
NJ7 Lance R+3 13.9%
NJ3 Adler R+1 27.9%
NJ12 Holt D+5 62.9%
NJ2 LoBiondo D+1 66.0%
NJ6 Pallone D+8 85.2%
NJ9 Rothman D+9 88.8%
NJ8 Pascrell D+10 96.6%
NJ1 Andrews D+12 97.0%
NJ13 Sires D+21 99.95%
NJ10 Payne D+33 99.998%

The main lesson, if you take this ratings seriously, is that New Jersey’s wealth makes the battleground Congressional districts lean Republican compared to how they vote at the Presidential level. In many states, the R+3 and even the R+7 districts have a great chance of going Democratic at the Congressional level, but here NJ5 and NJ7 are actually quite unfavorable, and should vote for the House like R+14 districts in the rest of the country. When we evaluate how our candidates did, it’s worth keeping this effect in mind.

Frank LoBiondo’s district is the poorest in New Jersey, and by this measure is slightly better for Democrats than Holt’s district, but we are stuck with the echo of 1994. In case it’s not obvious, being an incumbent matters, scandals matter, and cycles can be more or less Republican than the average cycle, and you should always remember that the most likely outcome doesn’t always happen. All of our 2010 races have incumbents so the percentages definitely do not apply. Also, this is the last election in the current districts.

So much for that “pledge”, eh, Rep. Pascrell?

It wasn’t too long ago that we asked the Blue Jersey community to thank Reps. Pascrell, Holt, Payne and Sires for taking a stand on the “non-negotiable” public option.

So it was both puzzling and disheartening to read this yesterday:

Amid fresh signs that the White House is preparing to back a scaled-down health care overhaul that would only include a public insurance option as a fallback plan, several House liberals told Roll Call that they could support such a bill depending on how it was structured.


The “trigger” approach has been considered a deal-killer by liberals on and off Capitol Hill, and the willingness of some Congressional Progressive Caucus members to entertain it reflects a recognition that a bruising August recess has imperiled prospects for reform and redrawn expectations for what is possible.

“This is a way to get a bill,” Rep. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) said. “I believe it’s worth listening to because I want legislation that is going to, in some shape or form, expand coverage and bring down the cost of health care.”

Let’s put it bluntly – single payer was taken off the table before negotiations even started.  And now, the public option, which is the damn compromise is now being compromised?  Before reconciliation even occurs?  A “trigger” will not work.  There will either be too low of a bar in order to avoid the “trigger”, too many millions will STILL be out of luck when it comes to coverage, and there is no reason to think that the “trigger” can’t be compromised away for some other crap like a “co-op”.  

Please call Rep. Pascrell’s office and ask for clarification as to why he was standing so strong for a REAL compromise bill a few short weeks ago but is now willing to back what will be a very costly failure in the name of “passing something”:

Here is the contact form on his House website, and his phone numbers are below:


Washington, DC (202) 225-5751

Paterson (Main District Office) (973) 523-5152

Bloomfield (973) 680-1361

Passaic (973) 472-4510

When we started the series on the Public Option Whip here at Blue Jersey, we stopped after Rep. Pallone since four out of the five Reps. that “took the pledge” represented districts that we didn’t get to yet.  But now, in looking back, maybe we should have – given that one of these four is already wavering.

Why would you keep taking things off the table before even getting to the table?

Time To End the Madness

 It has become increasingly clear that Hilary Clinton has virtually no hope of winning the nomination, but is increasing the chances of a McCain victory every day her scorched earth policy continues.

According to the Wall Street Journal, Obama won the popular vote in the 8th CD. Congressman Pascrell a Superdelegate representing the 8th CD has endorsed Hillary Clinton It’s  time Bill represented us and help put an end to Hillary’s party destroying strategy.

Pascrell Statement on State of the Union

Since the poor guy had to sit through it, I want to put his statement up…

“For the eighth time in eight years, the President’s State of the Union Address failed to lay out a strong vision for America’s working class families.  Job losses, long term unemployment, reduced family income and a damaged stock market have forced anxiety around kitchen tables all across the country.”

Oops they did it again!

First, Dawn Marie Addiego attacks Italian-Americans (of which she is one),when she ran against Dean Buono. Now she is attacking Muslims. Freeholder Addiego, are all Muslims terrorists? You are a supposed lawyer, as such, you are sworn to uphold the U. S. Constitution. To jog your memory, in America you are innocent until proven guilty.

Tracy Riley, whom you Rudder and Haines (also a lawyer) attacked in your garbage mail piece is not a lawyer, therefore your BS statement of “If she goes to Trenton, will she really fight for tougher crime laws that could hurt her clients?” is not only misleading, but unethical and most likely libel, as you, Freeholder Addiego, County Clerk Haines & Mayor Rudder should know. Isn’t one civil law suit for slander and libel enough for you Ms. Addiego?

Tracy Riley has spoken on the record that she is pro death penalty, therefore once again, you have lied to the voters with your statement of “Will she repeal death penalty laws for terrorists?”

My favorite part of your attack piece is “Now, Tracy Riley’s Family’s Law Firm Is Defending Him…” Really Mr. Haines? We know her mother is not a lawyer, her father was not a lawyer, her daughter is not a lawyer and Tracy herself is not a lawyer. So Addiego, Haines & Rudder must be talking about Mrs. Riley’s husband; Mike Riley, whom is the only lawyer in the bunch. The only lawyer qualified to be appointed by the FEDERAL COURT SYSTEM to represent the alleged terrorist you speak of in your attack piece is Tracy’s husband, Mike Riley. Ms. Addiego, you are not qualified to defend anyone, neither is Mr. Haines. You are both lawyers?… Addiego, Rudder & Haines keep padding their pensions with their County & Township jobs (like Mr. Rudder’s father did for Martha Bark) and spitting out lies.

Let’s add a little truth, because as we all know, the truth hurts…

Ms. Addiego has received most of her political contributions from developers (source ELEC). The truth is Freeholder Addiego “let’s save the open space” is a developer herself, does Krystal Development mean anything to you Dawn. How about the Aurora (Aurora means the Dawn)room at the money sucking Indian Spring golf course you gave us. How about raising County taxes while lowering the rate and stating you’ve never raised taxes? We are not stupid, we can add. Your lies don’t add up and we in Evesham are fed up with them.

Mr. Haines, where exactly do you live? Oh that’s right, with your disabled brother whom doesn’t pay property taxes. Our tax dollars certainly pay you enough money to actually buy a home and pay taxes like the rest of us.

Mr Rudder, last but never least, shall we hang on your head as you have tried to do to Tracy, through her husband, the past sins of your father. Through the BCIT with Senator Bark and her pension padding no show jobs your father made that possible? How does it feel Skippy to have mud slung at your family?

My advice to the Haines, Addiego & Rudder team is learn the Constitution you took oaths to uphold, without doing so, you are as guilty as the alleged terrorist. Your source for your attack piece was the Burlington County Times, even they think you are bogus. See their editorial below.

Politics by innuendo

Burlington County Times

The Republicans must think Burlington County voters are stupid.
How else to explain a misguided letter three GOP mayors leaked to the press this week?
In it, they challenge a candidate for state Assembly on grounds that her husband is representing a man accused in a failed terrorist plot against Fort Dix.
The heads of North Hanover, Wrightstown and New Hanover sent their letter to Tracy Riley, a Democratic councilwoman from Mount Laurel running for office in the 8th District.
It urged her to ask Michael Riley, a former Burlington County prosecutor, to withdraw from his court-appoint position as lawyer for Shain Duka.
Duka is one of six suspects in the case that came to light in May.
Five men, including the Cherry Hill resident, face life sentences if convicted of conspiracy to murder military personnel; the sixth is charged with weapons offenses that could draw 10 years in prison.
During an election in which Republicans here are being seriously challenged for the first time in decades, the mayors’ missive smacks of fear and desperation.
We don’t think voters are dumb. They will see through the innuendo and recognize this ploy for what it is: political maneuvering at its basest.
The mayors represent towns near Fort Dix. Their letter not only seeks Michael Riley’s abandonment of the case, it also asks Tracy Riley – who works at her husband’s firm – how she feels about such topics as abolishing the death penalty and cracking down on illegal immigration.
“… We feel it’s imperative you answer some questions about how your penchant for defending lowlifes like this would affect decisions you make in the Legislature,” the letter read in part.

Mayor Lou DeLorenzo of North Hanover said he sent the letter to Riley and area newspapers from a fax machine at the North Hanover Municipal Building.
That means it went out on the taxpayers’ dime.
His explanations that the letter represents public business on behalf of township residents ring hollow.
It’s impossible to conclude this move doesn’t play into the campaign plans of 8th District GOP candidates Phil Haines, Dawn Marie Addiego and Scott Rudder, who quickly issued a statement saying they agree with the mayors.
A fourth area mayor whose town is near Fort Dix was left out of the loop when it came to drafting the letter,
That would be Mayor David Patriarca of Pemberton Township. He’s a Democrat.
The exclusion was an oversight, Mayor DeLorenzo said.
Pretty convenient one, we say.
Two points to remember in the fog of political war are the Constitution guarantees legal representation to every accused, no matter how heinous the crime, and a defense attorney has the absolute right to defend any client.
Trying to smear Tracy Riley because her husband is carrying out his country’s constitutional mandate is a foolhardy tactic on the part of the mayors – and the Republican organization backing them.
“Quite frankly, these mayors need a civics lesson on what the Constitution provides,” said Joe Pinto, president of the Burlington County Bar Association.
They could also use a refresher in campaigning with integrity.

My opinion on the alleged terrorist, if found to be guilty, give them the death penalty or better yet, kill them and save the taxpayers money. An eye for an eye.

Third Quarter Cash on Hand for Democrats

Cash on Hand from the FEC quarterly filings:

Rob Andrews (NJ1) $2,429,899
Rush Holt (NJ12) $623,200
Frank Pallone (NJ6) $3,105,223
Bill Pascrell (NJ8) $1,031,440
Don Payne (NJ10) $751,399
Steve Rothman (NJ9) $1,838,631
Albio Sires (NJ13) $132,605

Your politics 101 quiz:  Which of these Congressmen is thinking of running for the U.S. Senate?

Rep. Pascrell Town Hall Meeting with Rep. Murtha @ Montclair State University

The afternoon at Montclair State started with a seventy something year old man, possibly trying to physically accost John Murtha. Police intervened, taking the senoir citezen away. Witnesses said the man was screaming “LIAR-LIAR”, and identified himself as a former Marine.

The rest of the Town Hall style meeting went smoothly, with both representatives swapping places in front of the microphones.

As you can imagine Pascrell and Murtha fielded many questions about the war in Iraq. Their were also questions on Homeland Security, the Health problems of First Responders on 9-11, & the Dept. of Peace (from a fan of Kooch). Bill Pascrell said he didn’t think that the Dept. of Peace was going to see the light of day anytime soon, but commented that with a democratic majority it would be something he would like to see.

John Murtha poses for pictures with Montclair State students at the end of the Town Hall meeting.

Tosser of the Day: Bill Pascrell

Uh. Yeah, I just checked and Bill Pascrell is still a Democrat. You know that club of people in the minority who can’t seem to congeal together on any issue regardless of how piss poor the President’s poll numbers get.

Bill Pascrell, also happens to like love how Gen. Hayden and The President have taken it upon themselves to re-write the fourth Ammendment of our nation’s Constitution.

From Herb Jackson’s Blog, Bill “I hate Italian stereotypes” Pascrell on Hayden’s nomination to the CIA:

I fully support the nomination of General Michael Hayden to lead the CIA. General Hayden is a good, resolute man who will bring strong operational authority to an embattled agency that has been broken down by politics. I take pause at General Hayden’s domestic surveillance program, and call on my colleagues in the Senate to fully vet his position during the confirmation hearings. If done lawfully and in compliance with our constitution, domestic surveillance will enhance security. … I am confident that during the confirmation hearings, General Hayden’s record of service will impress my colleagues and the American public. His ability to work in a complementary fashion with Director Negroponte is proven.

PSST! Pascrell, General consensus in the legal field is that this excellent wiretapping program (that hasn’t caught any terrorists) is way beyond the scope of the law (See FISA).

i.e. Its ILLEGAL.
i.e. I know you are trying to act all tough and all cuz you have been accused of wanting to have sex with terrorists, but uh. The President’s choice is the architect and manager of the most blatent intrusion of our civil rights since the PATRIOT Act.

Oh. Wait, you voted for that too didn’t you.

Say it with me kids…

T-O-S-S-E-R