Author Archive: War Horse

Inside the Cho Campaign

promoted by Rosi

I started this post-mortem a week out from election as the ramp up to the final push was in full swing. The copy machine was running full-time as the cases of paper came in waves off the delivery trucks. In my many years of working on political campaigns, I’ve never witnessed what has taken place since the Monmouth University poll [showing Cho just 5 points back, “within striking distance of Garrett – ed.] was released and the rest of the country learned what we already knew; the Cho campaign was one of the few opportunities in a Republican year where a Democrat threatened an entrenched Republican incumbent.

The electricity among the volunteers and even some of the staff grew with every article from The Record, The Ledger, The Herald, Politickernj, the AP, etc. The second poll from Monmouth University was released around Noon that final Thursday and the news wasn’t good: down by 11; trailing in Bergen where we were once up by 12. Looking deeper into the crosstabs we had made up 5 points in the western part of the district where we had spent no money. Something wasn’t making sense. If we trashed the poll in the media, I had visions of Team Romney poo-pooing the pollsters and thus Romney being caught flat footed having not prepared a concession speech. So we sat silently despite internal concern over the Monmouth findings.

A Year Ago Almost to the Day

promoted by Rosi

Cross-posted from Retire Garrett

On April 5, 2012, I wrote the following about something Scott Garrett was doing as the Chairman of the Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets:

A second piece of legislation passed Garrett’s committee – with Garrett as a primary cosponsor would prevent the CFTC and the SEC from regulating derivative trades by overseas subsidiaries of American companies.  In other words, the same bad actors who helped cause the worst economic recession since the Great Depression could simply conduct their derivative trading through overseas subsidiaries and go back to doing business as usual as they did before Dodd-Frank.

The Difference Between Deficits, Debt and How Scott Garrett’s Fiscal Philosophy Dooms us All

Cross posted from www.retiregarrett.com

Scott Garrett wants his constituents to believe that his brand of fiscal conservatism is a solution to the economic woes of the Federal government.  After all, the United States has run an annual budget deficit of over $1 Trillion every year Barack Obama has been in office.  WOW!  That sounds really bad, and it is.  But let’s stop for a few minutes to understand how we got in this position; what we’re doing about it; and the history of budget deficits over the last 30 years (after all, you can’t be expected to know where you’re headed if you don’t know where you’ve been).

Deficits are different from debt.  Debt is the running total of all the deficits we’ve accumulated over time.  Annual deficits are just that; annual.  As an example, if I earn $300 dollars a year, but spend $400 a year, I’m running an annual deficit of $100.  I need to borrow that $100 difference and let’s say further that you were kind enough to make me a loan.  I continue my spending patterns for 5 years, and as a result I’ve had to borrow $100 from you every year and haven’t paid you back.  So after 5 years I owe you $500. (to keep things simple I’m excluding interest owed on the borrowed money).

You Know the Republican Brand is damaged When…

promoted by Rosi

cross posted from www.retiregarrett.com

Scott Garrett refuses to admit he’s a Republican.  Scott Garrett’s got a campaign ad running on his website.  I doubt he’ll ever run it, but it’s there for anyone to see.

The ad is all about cutting spending way back as a means to restoring fiscal sanity.  Now I would argue that government spending in a recession is the only thing standing between us and another Great Depression, but that’s an argument for another day.  What struck me is that nowhere in the ad did Scott Garrett identify himself as a Republican.  Instead he characterizes himself as an “Independent Voice for Change.”  Why would that be?

At the Debate

Cross posted from www.retiregarrrett.com

My apologies to all for missing the Sunday debate between Congressman Scott Garrett and challenger Adam Gussen.  Family responsibilities made my attendance impossible.  Fortunately, I’ve been able to get a good idea as to what took place from friends in attendance and from reading reports from the news agencies covering the event.

Here’s something that jumped out at me from Phillip Molnar at The Express Times (Lehigh Valley):

Garrett said small businesses needed “certainty” in health care laws, financial markets and the tax code before they could hire new people. He said Congress needed to repeal and reform parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial legislation and reform the Affordable Care Act.

“Provide certainty in the marketplace and people will have the optimism going forward in the economy in hiring and that will be good for the country and New Jersey and the 5th Congressional District,” Garrett said.

At the Debate

Cross posted from www.retiregarrrett.com

My apologies to all for missing the Sunday debate between Congressman Scott Garrett and challenger Adam Gussen.  Family responsibilities made my attendance impossible.  Fortunately, I’ve been able to get a good idea as to what took place from friends in attendance and from reading reports from the news agencies covering the event.

Here’s something that jumped out at me from Phillip Molnar at The Express Times (Lehigh Valley):

Garrett said small businesses needed “certainty” in health care laws, financial markets and the tax code before they could hire new people. He said Congress needed to repeal and reform parts of the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial legislation and reform the Affordable Care Act.

“Provide certainty in the marketplace and people will have the optimism going forward in the economy in hiring and that will be good for the country and New Jersey and the 5th Congressional District,” Garrett said.

As A Public Service to Voters in the 5th CD

Cross posted from www.retiregarrett.com

We’re entering the home stretch.   As a public service I thought I’d let you know about some important dates and information to keep in mind as we speed toward the November 6th General Election.

General Election: November 6,2012

Voter Registration Deadline for the General Election: October 16, 2012  14 days left

Deadline to apply for a Mail-In Ballot by Mail for General Election: October 30,2012   28 days left

Mailing of Sample Ballots for General Election: October 31,2012  29 days left

Deadline for Application to Receive General Election Mail-In Ballots by Electronic Means for Qualified Overseas Civilian and Military Voters:  November 2, 2012  31 days left

Deadline for In-Person Mail-In Ballot Applications for General Election: November 5, 2012 (by 3pm)  34 days left

Deadline for Submission of General Election Mail-In Ballots to County Boards of Election: November 6, 2012  35 days left

Scott Garrett’s Ambition

promoted by Rosi

Cross posted from www.retiregarrett.com

Folks, we’re living in an alternate universe. It’s a universe in which Scott Garrett is vying to become Chairman of the House Budget Committee should the Romney/Ryan ticket prevail and should Republicans remain in control of The House of Representatives.

You may recall that for the last two years, Scott Garrett has offered up the Republican Study Committee’s more conservative alternative to the Ryan Budget proposal.  Apparently adding an $4.6 trillion to the deficit and gutting discretionary spending on such “frivolous” programs as monitoring the safety of our food, immunizing our children from disease and keeping airline safety regulators on the job (as proposed in the Ryan Budget) didn’t go far enough toward harming our economy and the removing the safety pieces put in place over the lifetime of our Republic.

Looking into the Numbers

Cross Posted from Retire Garrett

Scott Garrett received 87% of the 27, 567 votes cast in the Republican Primary.  That’s about the overall percentage one would expect to see for a five term incumbent running in a primary.  What surprises me is how he won it.  The narrative everyone has come to rely upon is that Warren and Sussex Counties are the most “Republican” parts of the district whereas Bergen and Passaic Counties tend to lean more toward the middle but still favor Garrett.

Would it surprise you to learn that Garrett performed best in Bergen County?  How is it possible that Scott Garrett got 93% (12, 090) of the votes cast there?  Bergen County is the home of both of his primary opponents and he thrashed them in their own backyards.

Garrett’s second best performance was in Passaic County.  He received 90% (1,843) of the votes cast there.  In Sussex County – the county where Scott Garrett resides – he “only” received 83%  (6,225) of the votes.  His worst performance was in Warren County where he still managed to garner 78% (3,897) of the votes cast.

What explains this possible anomaly?  Was Garrett focusing all his efforts on the new parts of Bergen County and taking his “home turf” for granted?  Did his challengers figure they’d do best in Bergen where people knew them so they shifted their attention out west?  Have Bergen and Passaic Counties warmed up to Scott Garrett’s brand of conservative politics?

A Quick Blurb that Says So Much

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Cross Posted from Retire Garrett

I’ve got to give Scott Garrett credit.  He’ll meet with any group no matter how much damage he’s done to the issues they care about and try to convince them that he’s worthy of their votes in November.

I saw the following blurb while scanning through The Paramus Post:

Residents, staff and guests of The Atrium Assisted Living at The Allendale Community for Mature Living recently voiced their questions to U.S. Congressman Scott Garrett during a Town Hall-style meeting at the senior living residence. Congressman Garrett described his role in Congress and answered attendees’ questions about social security, Medicare and the upcoming presidential election. Pictured with Congressman Garrett (second from left) at the event are (L-R) Allendale Mayor Vince Barra and The Allendale Community’s Jolanta Giancarlo, Vice President, and Dr. Hector Giancarlo, President and Founder.

The senior residence regularly hosts cultural, educational and social events, as well as interactive discussions with elected officials to encourage its senior residents and older adults to address matters that are of concern to them. For more information on upcoming events open to the public, call (201) 818-7979.