The FEC isn’t expected to release a final 2020 Presidential Primary calendar until January, 2019. But here is what it’s likely to look like (source: DemList). Once again, New Jersey? Close to last. That means that although the Dems will absolutely depend on the Garden State to fork over the big bucks, just as Hillary Clinton did in high-dollar house parties here (nearly $12 million most of it in large checks), we won’t get a say. Those high-dollar grip-and-grins aren’t the only things with big numbers. NJ’s split between the nation’s #1 (NYC) and #4 (Philly) media markets. The smarter and sleeker presidential campaigns will rely less on simply trying to televise their candidate to victory. But – truth, now – most presidential campaigns aren’t that smart, and will compensate for a lackluster or uninspiring candidate with massive TV buys. Try that in this market – with North Jersey connected to the NYC market and South Jersey hooked to Philly – and you run low on cash quick. Maybe that’s one reason we’re late.
The Dem field will be jumbo – 30-plus** potential combatants. You want to win, you’ve going to have to be viable early – candidates you haven’t heard of yet are going to have a harder time fighting for oxygen against the national names likely to get in. Super Tuesday is March 3 – it’s a monster that includes Virginia, Massachusetts and Texas. And California has moved their primary way up to be in it. Cali’s move is specifically designed to give that state more influence picking nominees. California’s tired of not being relevant; of being exactly the kind of (Dem) ATM as we are, but not getting to vote till the primary’s already essentially over. Last time, in 2016, CA & NJ were on the same day.
Now, Cali’s moved up 91 days to Super Tuesday … leaving New Jersey in its dust.