New York Times/Siena College Poll showed a whopping 10-point spread Andy Kim (49%) over Rep. MacArthur (39%) in this district’s most recent poll (jump to RCP). Hard not to imagine that survey (499 respondents) as a potential outlier, but we do know it’s close. Monmouth University Poll, taken more than two months ago has Kim up by 1 point, but that was before – as Monmouth points out – most voters in the district were really thinking about November (that caution does not apply to my friends).
Kim’s campaign is aiming for a House seat only one other Democrat has won in 100 years. The late NJ State Senator John Adler rode the 2008 Obama wave and won his district with exactly the same 3.4% margin as Obama won the district (Obama won CD:3 in 2012 too, but Adler lost to Jon Runyon by 9 points and by 2016 Trump won by 6 points and MacArthur won by more than 20). This time around, the 3rd is much, much closer. So close, it’s getting ugly, with allegations from the GOP camp that Andy Kim padded his resume to appeal to Republicans (Washington Post gave Kim 2 Pinnochios for ‘exaggerating’ his role in the Bush administration, but also said MacArthur’s campaign was stretching to call Kim’s claim a “lie”).
Both RCP and Cook Political Report rate this district a “Toss-Up”. MacArthur was Donald Trump’s willing House errand boy in the Republican effort to dismantle the ACA. This ad never mentions Trump, but does pin the money ties between T-Mac and the drug and insurance interests that benefit from his service to them at cost to us. This is Andy Kim’s “Booth” –