NJ Midterms: A New Dawn Rising

An April Monmouth University Poll said that Trump and his tax cut were so unpopular in the Garden State that Democrats could sweep all five Republican-held districts. At that point it seemed a pipe dream but activists became energized. Now with only 40 days until Election Day the results so far are nothing short of phenomenal. 

We are leading the way in the effort to take control of the House, and we have a key role to play in flipping the U. S. Senate. The over-arching objective is to stop Trump dead in his tracks, and yes we can. Today’s poll in CD 03 is a stunning confirmation of how well we are succeeding. See the excitement below. (I) indicates an incumbent.

SENATE 

Bob Menendez (D I)  v IBob Hugin (R). As we watch today the Kavanaugh nomination hearing we realize how important it is to flip the Senate. There are 51 Republicans and 49 Democrats (including two independents) in the Senate now. The re-election of Menendez is a must. His policies most frequently are ours, and so far he is is ahead in the polling. The most recent poll of 8/15 – 8/20 has Menendez + 6, and the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average of recent polls places him +8.3. 

HOUSE

CD 02: Open Seat. Jeff Van Drew (D) v. Seth Grossman (R). Grossman is a horror show with his history of racist, sexist and anti LGBTQ comments. Although Van Drew is far from an ideal candidate, he is much closer to what we want. The only RCP poll of 9/12 – 9/18 has Van Drew a staggering + 23. The only thing that could stop him is failure of Dems to vote for him. 

CD 03: Andy Kim (D) v. Tom MacArthur (R I). Not so long ago prognosticators were sure that “Money Bags” MacArthur, a fervent supporter of Trump, was unbeatable. Nonetheless, they have been proven wrong. In a poll of 8/7 – 8/19 Kim was +1 and in today’s  poll 9/22 – 9/26 Kim has reached a stunning high +10, way better than the margin of error.

CD 04: Josh Welle (D) v. Chris Smith (R I). This remains the most challenging race. Smith, in office since 1981, recently said out loud that an orphanage is preferable for raising a child over a gay or lesbian couple. As we have already kicked hater Scott Garrett out of his CD 5 seat, the next relic of the past is due the same fate. Maybe Smith will mouth off more with misogynistic comments. Welle is all that we would want in a candidate but faces tough odds. The Democratic Congressional Committee added Smith to its target list.

CD 05: Josh Gottheimer (D I) v. John McCann (R). Although RCP lists no polls for this race, McCann is like a ghost candidate (neither much seen nor heard). In a district which leans only slightly Republican, the Cook Report has Gottheimer as “Likely Democrat.” He needs strong turnout in the more liberal Bergen County. His social progressive policies align with ours, whereas McCann is a “Make America Great Again” type of person. 

CD 07: Tom Malinowski (D) v. Leonard Lance (R I). Lance, like a lizard that can change colors to match the circumstances, remains a threat. However, Malinowski has a proven, steadfast track record under the Obama Administration. The only RCP poll places him +3, which unfortunately remains within the margin of error. With strengthened support he will win. 

CD 11: Open Seat. Mikey Sherrill (D) v. Jay Webber (R). This seat was long-held by Rodney Frelinghuysen (R) who opposed most everything we supported. Now the Republican candidate Jay Webber seems even worse with an extreme conservative record in the State Senate. In the meanwhile the district is moving in the opposite direction. The only RCP poll places Sherrill +4, also within the margin of error. The Cook Report rates her race as “Lean Democratic.” She is a breath of fresh air, a step still away from victory, but her odds are strong with more support.  

 

 

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *