Kinda New Jersey: Elizabeth Warren Leads in Polls in New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary

As much soul-searching and reinventing our party must do in order to reconcile the progressive populism that is occupying the soul of of the party with the “big tent Democrats” that are supposed to handle the levers to national electoral success, I am encouraged by the fact that the Democratic Party has no heir apparent for 2020.

And why aren’t we making a bigger deal about that, by the way? I have no idea who the Democratic candidates will be in 2020, never mind the eventual nominee. I haven’t been able to say that since the years leading up to the 2004 presidential, when the party was tacking right.

Now we’re tacking left and it looks like Elizabeth Warren is an early favorite in the New Hampshire presidential primary. From the Boston Globe:

The results show the potency Warren has by just showing up. Her presence on the ballot uniquely changes the game, to the point where whether she runs is one of the biggest question marks of the 2020 election.

In the same poll, Warren leads the field of possible candidates with nearly 26 percent, followed by Vice President Joe Biden, who came in second with 20 percent, and Sen. Bernie Sanders, who had 13 percent. Kamala Harris? Kirsten Gillibrand? Bueller? Bueller? Anyone? Anyone?

Thoughts? Good that we haven’t anointed anyone, right? Or do we need to start figuring out who some of the likely candidates will be and encourage robust primaries?

Comments (2)

  1. Bertin Lefkovic

    Booker and Warren have to choose between running for President and running for re-election to the Senate. I think that it is highly unlikely that she runs, but Booker might, because the filing deadline for NJ’s primary elections is late enough to give him some time to get some traction.

    If he does, then he and Kamala Harris will most likely cannibalize each other’s candidacies in the states where the black vote is especially impactful.

    Without Warren in the race, Bernie most likely retains most of his voters from 2016 plus some new ones. Is that going to be enough to go into the convention with enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot?

    It is hard to imagine that happening. When challenged by a progressive insurgent, at some point in the process, the Democratic establishment will most likely close ranks behind a single candidate.

    In 2004, that was Kerry. In 2020, it will probably be Biden with Harris getting the nod to be his running mate. Unless Booker catches fire and knocks Harris out of the race early, he will probably finish fourth in most states and get out of the race just in time to run for re-election to his Senate seat.

    Remember that you read this here first. Warren is going to endorse Biden and not Sanders and when Biden becomes President, he will choose Warren to become his Treasury Secretary. Anyone who thinks that she is not part of the Democratic establishment is fooling themselves.

  2. Matthew Brian Hersh (Post author)

    Thank you for commenting! I don’t think Biden runs, but that’s just on my gut. Regarding Warren, I agree that it’s silly to think she’s not part of the establishment. You don’t get to be senator from Massachusetts if you’re not part of the establishment. It just depends on what type of establishment candidate you are.


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