2018 Generic Ballot Polling (Good) News

Just up at CNN. This is national, it’s still early, and its importance pales by comparison to head-to-head matchups down the line when we have actual nominees. But for early, generic ballot polling, this is damn promising, particularly for districts like CD7 (Lance), CD11 (Frelinghuysen) and CD2 (open, LoBiondo not running), but really for almost all our districts including ones Democrats have to defend, like Gottheimer’s CD5. And it’s not an outlier; take a look at the RCP numbers for generic ballot. And in the RCP average, note that one of the polls is Monmouth (Patrick Murray, who is excellent). Monmouth, with sampling done 12-10-12/12, has the Democratic advantage at +15 – closest to CNN’s numbers.

CNN’s polling, like Monmouth’s was done before the tax overhaul vote, which the Republicans did to score a lonely party victory after a year of weakness in fulfilling its promises. But as you know, there are signs Americans see through the GOP’s desire to reward big corporations and the already-rich, and are beginning to trust Democrats might handle the economy better – even as the same poll shows Americans still tuned to the idea that businessman Trump is improving that economy. CNN’s polling also suggests independents are again favoring Democrats, in similar numbers to 2005 just before the Democrats recaptured the House and Senate. CNN:

 

 

 

 

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