Yes, we know that in the competitive primary districts there were no surprises, and given the dynamics of these districts the balance between R’s and D’s is unlikely to change. However, there were a few omens in other races. The votes in the primary are not predictive of outcome in the general, but they may provide hints, favorable or unfavorable, about specific races.
Races that bear watching and would benefit from additional support:
LD 38: This was the only district where both D incumbents received less primary votes than the R challengers. In 2013 this was an incredibly close race.
LD 1: A split district where the R incumbent polled well, but the R challenger outpolled both the D incumbent and D challenger. This is a district which previously had two D incumbents and was closely contested in 2013.
LD 2: Another split district where the D incumbent got the most votes, and the D challenger slightly outpolled the R incumbent and R challenger. This was another close race in 2013.
To read the still unofficial results for all primary races go to the Division of Elections website.
Go below the fold to see the candidates and polling results for the above three races.
An * denotes an incumbent
LD 1 ATLANTIC (part) – CAPE MAY – CUMBERLAND (part) Counties
BOB ANDRZEJCZAK * (D) 1,954
R BRUCE LAND (D) 1,765
SAM FIOCCHI * (R) 3,880
JIM SAURO (R) 3,575
Total 2015 primary votes: 11,174
(Total 2013 general vote: 110,011)
LD 2 ATLANTIC (part) County
VINCENT MAZZEO * (D) 3,327
COLIN BELL (D) 3,110
CHRIS BROWN * (R) 2,987
WILL PAULS (R) 2,698
Total 2015 primary votes: 12,122
(Total 2013 general votes: 110,836)
LD 38 BERGEN (part) – PASSAIC (part) Counties
TIM EUSTACE * (D) 1,950
JOSEPH LAGANA * (D) 1,893
MARK DIPISA (R) 2,449
ANTHONY CAPPOLA (R) 2,296
Total 2015 primary votes: 8,588
(Total 2013 general votes: 104,101)
Two other districts had somewhat interesting votes: LD 27 where the R’s put up respectable totals (mirroring the 2013 general) in this D-leaning district with D incumbents – with Essex voting D and Morris voting R; and LD 11 where with abysmally low turnout the D’s got almost as many votes as the incumbent R’s, but the district is solidly R.
When you look at the total 2015 primary votes per district bear in mind that if every registered R and D voter cast two ballots there would be on average 140,392 votes per district. Yes, the turnout was poor, but more on that matter in the next post.