Christie’s trajectory in presidential polls

Presidential primaries start about nine months from now. Nine months ago Governor Christie was riding high, but his trajectory since then has been downward. According to Real Clear Politics which provides a summary of presidential polls, in July last year Gov. Christie led the pack of contenders in a CNN poll by one point over Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee. Perry was 4th, Bush was 5th, and Walker was 6th. Since then Christie has dropped, and both Bush and Walker have risen. This does not presage well for him in the early primaries where a victory is important to propel him forward.

How times have changed. Below the fold is his poll trajectory over the past six months, leading him downward to 6th place. Included also are data in states holding early primaries and caucuses.

From Real Clear Politics:

October 2014 (ABC): 4th place – Behind Bush, Huckabee and Paul.

November 2014 (CNN): 4th place – Behind Bush, Carson and Huckabee.    

November 2014 (Qui): 2nd place – behind Bush.

November 2014 (Ras): 3rd place – behind Walker and Bush.

December 2014 (CNN): 2nd place – behind Bush.

December 2014 (ABC): 5th place – behind Bush, Paul, Carson, and Cruz.

December 2014 (McC): 3rd place – behind Bush and Huckabee.

January 2015 (FOX): 6th place – behind Bush, Huckabee, Paul, Carson and Walker.

February 2015 (Qui): 3rd place – behind Walker, and Bush.

February 2015 (PPP): 5th place – behind Walker, Carson,,Bush and Huckabee.

February 2015 (CNN): 6th place – behind Huckabee, Bush, Walker, Paul, and Carson.

March 2015 (CNN): 6th place – behind Bush, Walker, Paul, Huckabee, and Carson.

March 2015 (McC): 6th place – behind Bush, Walker, Huckabee, Carson, and Paul.

Sunday’s CBS poll, in a different format, asks Republicans the question “Would you consider voting for:” and Christie ranks 9th.

Gov. Christie faces a variety of hurdles in the race. A key one is whether he can be successful in at least one of the early primaries or caucuses.

The tentative primary calendar and how Christie ranks in the most recent state polls from Real Clear Politics:

January: Iowa caucus (7th) and New Hampshire Primary (4th). In another March NH poll not listed by Real Clear Politics from Suffolk he ranked 5th.

February Colorado (NA) and Nevada (3rd) caucuses and New York (3rd) , South Carolina (6th) and North Carolina (NA) primaries.

It appears now he will have a tough time in conservative Republican states and might have a better chance in New York and Nevada. It’s a difficult, bleak road ahead for him as he balances and flip flops not only in New Jersey but between more moderate places like New York and more conservative states like South Carolina.  

Comments (2)

  1. Rosi Efthim

    Yes, the numbers are down and yes, it’s cause for relief (or something). And yes, as the months roll on, horserace placement in the roll-up months is important because money tends to follow it (witness the $1 million/day haul Jeb Bush is pulling in). But I still say don’t count your chickens. We’re still 3 seasons from the earliest primary, and a lot can still happen. Front-runners can stumble, emerging issues can still knock also-rans to the side, and the landscape can absolutely change in the months ahead. (Yes, it becomes less likely as we flip calendar pages).

    And some candidates do well coming from behind. Those opportunities tend to come to really skilled politicians burning higher octane fuel than the ideologues and legacy candidates. Christie may yet have his shot.

    Between now and then, though, expect him to further screw New Jersey in pursuit of jackass Republican attention. Of course.  


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