November 4, 2014 Election Polling

The public polls by mid October and early November were correct in projecting who the winners would be. However there was a difference in the quality of their output. The State’s Unofficial List of Senate Election Returns indicate that in the race for U. S. Senate 1,793,173 votes were cast, out of the total state-wide registered voters of 5,492,702, so the turn out rate was 32.7%.

Incumbent Cory Booker received 997,331 votes, 55.6%, Bell got 762,981 votes, 42.5%, and Independents received 32,321 votes, 1.9%, so Booker ended up + 13.1 points. The Monmouth poll projected Booker at +14 points, very close, and Fairleigh Dickinson at + 16 points, also close, but the Stockton poll had him at + 24 points, quite far off.

In the CD 2 race which resulted in LoBiondo 60.1% vs. Hughes 37% or LoBiondo + 23.1 points, Stockton had LoBiondo +19 points – off by 4 points.

In the CD 3 race Stockton had MacArthur at + 5 points but MacArthur won with 54.7% against Belgard’s 43.6 or 11.1 points – off by 6 points and not so good, whereas Monmouth in CD 5 had Garrett by + 11 points in a race Garret won by 12.7 points – very good.

Not all polls are equally good but the prize definitely goes to Monmouth.  

November 4, 2014 Election Polling

The public polls by mid October and early November were correct in projecting who the winners would be. However there was a difference in the quality of their output. The State’s Unofficial List of Senate Election Returns indicate that in the race for U. S. Senate 1,793,173 votes were cast, out of the total state-wide registered voters of 5,492,702, so the turn out rate was 32.7%.

Incumbent Cory Booker received 997,331 votes, 55.6%, Bell got 762,981 votes, 42.5%, and Independents received 32,321 votes, 1.9%, so Booker ended up + 13.1 points. The Monmouth poll projected Booker at +14 points, very close, and Fairleigh Dickinson at + 16 points, also close, but the Stockton poll had him at + 24 points, quite far off.

In the CD 2 race which resulted in LoBiondo 60.1% vs. Hughes 37% or LoBiondo + 23.1 points, Stockton had LoBiondo +19 points – off by 4 points.

In the CD 3 race Stockton had MacArthur at + 5 points but MacArthur won with 54.7% against Belgard’s 43.6 or 11.1 points – off by 6 points and not so good, whereas Monmouth in CD 5 had Garrett by + 11 points in race Garret won by 12.7 points – very good.

Not all polls are equally good but the prize definitely goes to Monmouth.  

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