Pretty much everything that can be done to win has been done to win with the exception of GOTV. If you can, you should be doing GOTV even if it’s just from your home. Make a call. And if a Romney or Kyrillos supporter is reading this post, you should be doing the same.
But the other fun thing to do in the closing hours — we’ll probably know the outcome in the next 36 hours — is to throw out your predictions for the world to see. Blue Jersey is offering a grand prize of 10,000 points for the person who comes closest to the POTUS popular and electoral votes, as well as the percentages for Bob Menendez and Joe Kyrillos.
Here’s a good tool you can use called 270 to Win to prove out your POTUS guesses.
You can also do down-ballot campaigns if you like.
Here’s my official attempt at the 10,000 point award
Obama Popular: 51 percent
Romney Popular: 47 percentObama Electoral College: 300 (Obama takes 1 from NE)
Romney Electoral College: 238Menendez: 56 percent
Kyrillos: 42 percent
Put yours in the comments.
popular vote: 51-48 (O)
electoral vote: 303 (Obama takes CO but not FL or NC) – 235
Menendez 58%-40%
Obama 48 Romney 48
Elect College Obama 287 Romney 251
Menendez 56 Kyrillos 41
Final results may not be certain until one or more weeks after elections.
…enables Obama to avoid a 269-269 tie, which would be won by Romney in the House and Biden in the Senate.
I agree with Nathan that Obama will take one electoral vote in NE. I predict that Obama loses FL, NC, OH, and VA, but wins CO, IA, NM, NV, and WI to win a narrow Electoral College victory, 273-265, making up for a narrow (less than 200,000 votes) popular vote loss, 49.6-49.4.
I would have predicted that Menendez would outpoll Obama in NJ prior to Sandy, but now I think that is highly unlikely as Obama will probably win NJ with 60% or more of the vote and Menendez with 59%.
Obama Popular: 51 percent
Romney Popular: 48 percent
Obama Electoral College: 348 (Obama takes 1 from NE)
Romney Electoral College: 190
Menendez: 56 percent
Kyrillos: 42 percent
Popular Vote:
Obama – 50.4
Romney – 47.6
Electoral Vote:
Obama – 303
Romney – 235 (same pickups as Rex Banner predicted)
New Jersey:
Turnout will be MUCH lower than 2008, ending somewhere between 2000 and 2004 (65-72% of registered voters). The storm not only badly affected the shore, but most of Morris County, northern Somerset County and other towns in that region are still without power or, at best, getting back on their feet right now.
As such, I believe Obama will have a larger victory in New Jersey than 4 years ago, but with a smaller plurality than the 600,000 one he had in 2008. Likewise, I believe Menendez will have a larger margin of victory than Lautenberg: I’d call it at 57-41%.
Sadly, I don’t see any of the Congressional seats switching parties, although I’m willing to bet Rodney Freylingheusen drops below 60% of the vote for the first time in his Congressional career. I expect Runyan, Lance and Garrett to finish below that mark as well, with Alder and Chivikula losing by single-digits.
I’m also going to go out on a limb and predict Marie Corfield will win the NJ-16 Special Election. And boy, would she deserve it!
Popular: 50.5-49 Obama
Electoral: 303 (OH, WI, VA, CO, NH, not FL or NC)
Menendez 58-41
There will be at least one or two local races in which the outcome will ride on disputes over the election process instituted post-Sandy and be litigated.
Obama 50 Romney 49
Electoral college: 303
Menendez 57-41
I’m way too close to both the NJ-7 Chivukula v. Lance contest and the LD-16 Assembly Marie Corfield v. Donna Simon race to predict. But I will tell you, I’ve never been prouder to be engaged in any race more than both of theirs; they rise to the pantheon for me personally of Rush Holt 1998 & 2000.
I predict some confusion in BOE officials and perhaps some misinformation as they instruct displaced voters. And fewer votes cast than projected pre-Sandy for some local contests. Expect litigation, and new calls in New Jersey for voter-verified paper ballots.
I’ll get my power back Friday. But the cable still won’t work.
I almost left NC off my wish list – would have nailed the EC!