Chris Christie running again

Associated Press::

TRENTON, N.J. (AP) – AP sources: New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie files papers to seek re-election next year.

                     –@Philip_Elliott of AP

Okay, there we go. Whose shoe falls next?

Comments (16)

  1. huntsu

    It makes sense to file the paperwork even if he’s not running.  Money raised toward running for Gov can be used for other things.

  2. Bertin Lefkovic

    …or Dick Codey should not wait six weeks for Cory Booker to tell us that he is not running for Governor next year.  If they want to have any chance of beating whichever sacrificial lamb the bosses select to feed to Christie if he decides to run for re-election as a Republican or Christie himself if he decides to run for re-election as a Democrat, they need to announce ASAP and get to work.

  3. 12mileseastofTrenton

    Didn’t see this coming.  A big surprise.

  4. Bertin Lefkovic

    This article makes Christie’s decision much more clear.

    What it doesn’t tell make clear is whether Christie is going to run for re-election as a Democrat or as a Republican.  I don’t know if this is because nobody thought to ask or if the papers that he filed did not include ballot access and party declaration forms.

  5. Bill W

    …would Christie run as a Democrat when it would be much, much easier for him as a Republican?  

  6. huntsu

    The guy has 60+ approval, with the majority of that from the GOP.  Why in heaven’s name would he piss off his base when they love him?

    It’s only the Tea Party, hard right true believers who hate Christie, and they’ll get over it when the choice is him or Booker, Buono, whomever.

  7. mmgth

    Christie running as a Democrat?

  8. Bertin Lefkovic

    How hard would it be for Christie to run as a Democrat with the support of the party bosses and the 13 county party lines that they control, Cory Booker, and Barack Obama?  Yes, Christie might have to win a Democratic primary election against someone like Barbara Buono or Richard Codey, but that would not necessarily be any harder than winning a Republican primary election against Steve Lonegan.  In fact, it could be easier as conservative insurgents are much better organized than progressive insurgents and Lonegan could conceivably claim more county party lines than Buono or Codey.

    But in the end, a party switch would have less to do with next year’s gubernatorial election and more to do with the 2016 presidential election.  Christie has no future as a Democrat or a Republican at the national level, but he does have a future as the Presidential candidate on the bipartisan Americans Elect ticket and while he could do that as either a Democrat or a Republican, I think that running for re-election as a Democrat, signing the Obamacare health exchange legislation, and allowing his marriage equality veto to be overridden would serve his overall narrative better.  There are also better VP options amongst moderate Republicans like Chuck Hagel, Kay Bailey Hutchinson, or Richard Lugar than there are amongst conservative Democrats like Evan Bayh, Jane Harman, and Blance Lincoln,

    I admit that I could be wrong about this.  He very well might run for re-election as a Republican, veto the Obamacare health exchange legislation, fight a marriage equality override, and try to muscle his way through a Republican Presidential primary election, but I think that his odds of getting where he wants to go are even longer than if he runs as a centrist independent candidate, particularly considering the electorate’s frustration with the current state of our country’s paralyzed/polarized politics.

  9. Bertin Lefkovic

    …whether he runs as a Democrat and faces Steve Lonegan in the general election or if he runs as a Republican and faces Barbara Buono or Chris Bollwage in the general election.

    If he runs as a Republican, he will most likely defeat Buono or Bollwage by anywhere between four and ten (possibly more – How much was Tom Kean’s re-election margin of victory?)percentage points, but there is also the possibility that he could lose to Buono if she hyperperforms with women.

    However, if he runs for re-election as a Democrat against a crackpot like Lonegan, it is not outside the realm of possibility that he could get 70% (or more) of the vote, winning by forty or more percentage points.  I believe that this path serves a narrative that would enable him to run for President on a bipartisan Americans Elect ticket.

    As I have said here and elsewhere, I could very easily be wrong about this.  Christie could remain on the Republican path, beat Lonegan in the primary election, and then lose to Marco Rubio or Paul Ryan in 2016.  He can then serve out the remainder of his term and take on Bob Menendez in 2018.  He might even be able to beat Menendez and might even be able to take another crack at running for President in 2020 or 2028.

    I just think that the other path is a plausible one, because it works better with the narrative that his nonpartisan governance during and following Sandy has started.  We’ll know very soon which path Christie decides to take, most likely when he either signs or vetoes the Obamacare health exchange legislation.

  10. Bertin Lefkovic

    Christie has been governing as part of a center-right coalition with Norcross et al for the last three years.  Running for re-election will not change anything except some stationery.  At best, it would give him the freedom to sign the Obamacare health insurance exchange legislation and possibly allow his marriage equality veto to be overridden, but even if I am right about this, I don’t expect him to become Martin O’Malley overnight or even Andrew Cuomo for that matter.

  11. 12mileseastofTrenton

    that Democratic voters would revolt (and regurgitate) at the very thought of Christie as the Democratic nominee.  And that in the highly unlikely event that Christie was the Democratic nominee, a real Democrat would launch and independent bid?

    So it could be Christie, Lonegan and a real Democrat.  Or Christie versus a Democrat.  Which do you think would be better for his re-election prospects?

  12. 12mileseastofTrenton


  13. Bertin Lefkovic

    First and foremost, I think that if Christie ran for re-election as a Democrat, he would most likely face a primary election challenge from someone like Barbara Buono, although I think that if this were to go down, she could be convinced to stand down by being brought back into the leadership fold, possibly as the first female Senate President in our state’s history, which would be made possible by Steve Sweeney becoming Christie’s LG.  

    Dick Codey is another person who could run against Christie in a Democratic primary election, but my guess is that he wouldn’t simply because Christie would have far too many advantages.  Assuming for a moment that Buono was bought off by the party establishment, the only county party lines that Codey would be likely to win are Monmouth, Mercer, Hunterdon, Somerset, Morris, Sussex, Warren, and Hudson (only because Sandra Cunningham and Brian Stack are expected to run for re-election off of the party line as part of yet another Sacco-Stack civil war).

    Codey would also have a strong opposition slate in Essex where two out of four incumbent State Senators would be running for re-election with him and Assemblyman John McKeon would be running on his line to succeed him in the State Senate, but even with that, the support of public employee unions, and his name recognition and popularity from his time as Acting Governor, I do not think that his odds of winning would be good enough for him to run.

    As far as the voters regurgitating or revolting at the very thought of Christie as the Democratic nominee goes, when was the last time you saw them reject any candidate that the party bosses fed them?  Democratic primary election voters are sheep that more often than not vote down the party line and there is no doubt in my mind that if Christie were to decide to run for re-election as a Democrat, he would be endorsed by both Cory Booker and President Barack Obama.

    I also expect that Christie would do some things that would make him appear more moderate in the eyes of both primary and general election voters.  He would sign the Obamacare health exchange legislation and he would allow his marriage equality veto to be overridden.  I don’t expect that he would change his positions much on education issues, especially since he is right in line with both Booker and Obama, or most fiscal matters.

    He would most likely give up on his tax cut, which he might have to do either way, but would probably not be willing to give in on the reinstatement of the millionaires’ tax, although that could get passed through some manner of political theater, whereby the tax is reinstated as part of the next budget, Christie vetoes it, but allows his veto to be overidden.

    Thus, I do not think that if Christie ran for re-election as a Democrat, a progressive Democrat would run as an independent as any progressive would know that her/his best chance of winning would be in a Democratic primary election, while an indepenent run has a much better chance of helping Steve Lonegan.

    Lonegan would probably be an easier primary election adversary for Christie to beat than Buono or Codey, Republican primary election voters are unpredictable, and I think that Christie could find greater value in winning the tougher fight, as it would support the overall narrative that would lead to him running for President on a bipartisan Americans Elect ticket.

  14. A.V. El-Hepta

    I have more of a chance of winning the Powerball than your scenario coming to fruition – and I haven’t even purchased a ticket. Perhaps you should continue your craziness by proposing that while Christie will run as a Democrat, Barbara Buono will switch parties and run as a Republican. Or maybe a Whig.

  15. Erik Preuss

    there isn’t really any empirical evidence to suggest Christie could win as a Democrat or will run as a Democrat. Your predictions are based on a number of assumptions,  and if any one of those assumptions are untrue, it won’t come to fruition. In this respect it is similar to placing an 8 or 9 team parlay wager on professional sports…its an interesting thought, but incredibly unrealistic.

    Also to suggest he could win the nomination as a dem I don’t think is realistic either. A governor’s election isn’t the type of election where you can coast on the line, everyone knows what’s going on. There are far too many dems who hate Christie for him to have a realistic chance at winning the nomination.

    Lastly, this whole assumption comes from the fact that his name is “tarnished” in the Republican party. I don’t think that’s true. People may be upset at him, but they will get over it, just like the people of Pennsylvania got over Obama’s “cling to guns and religion line.”  

  16. Bertin Lefkovic

    I am not saying that it is likely that Christie is going to run for re-election as a Democrat, but simply that it is possible and I think that I have provided sound reasons for why I think that this might happen.  Maybe if you could just make an argument against my logic instead of my sanity (or lack thereof), we could have a constructive conversation, but sadly, you are like so many others here who would prefer to be insulting rather than reasonable.  How progressive indeed.


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