In The Real World

I have decided to take lap top in hand and write my opinion as to Rothman’s decision to run in the new 9th district vs. the new 5th district after reading numerous newspaper articles and blogs. I am a municipal Chair who is supporting Rothman’s decision and here’s why:

When I first learned of the redistricting, I was infuriated to learn that some moron had split my town into two congressional districts.  How they were allowed to do this when it was probably against the law was beside me- Obviously no one ever challenged the actions in the past when Cities were divided and it probably would cost millions to take the decision on, even though, it is probably illegal what was done.  But New Jersey has a way of interpreting the laws as it sees fit and why should this time be any different- However I digress from the reason why I am on my lap top; and the second thought in my head was “Go Get Him, Rothman!” — him meaning Garrett.  

Then reality hit me hard.  It didn’t take more than a few minutes when I realized that Rothman would probably go for the newly drawn 9th district and here’s why in my opinion.

In a perfect scenario with the support of all Democrats coming out to vote in the new congressional 5th district, the republicans wouldn’t stand a chance.  

In a perfect scenario, it wouldn’t matter that the Republicans in Garrett’s original district come out in numbers that would shame most democratic voters, a Democrat would still win.

In a perfect scenario, it wouldn’t matter that the NRA, the Tea Party (probably backed by the Koch Brothers -who helped found the Tea Party and whose father founded the John Birch society) and other Good Ol’ boy businesses who will pour money into Garrett’s campaign like water through a sieve, because we could run a democrat against them who couldn’t possibly raise the monies Garrett’s cronies could but will still win against the Garrett machine.

In a perfect scenario, it wouldn’t matter that the Garrett’s backers would finance him regardless of the  question as to why they would want a Democrat in office- especially someone who is Jewish.  Because in a perfect scenario, it wouldn’t matter to the Good Ol boys of Sussex and Warren Counties in the political back rooms.

In a perfect scenario, Rothman would clobber Garrett, because good always triumphs — in the perfect scenario that is.

In the real world, any Democrat running against Garrett doesn’t stand a real chance in Hell of winning this race at this time.  Again, here’s why in my opinion-

One-Just the demographics alone illustrates the fact that there is a huge swath of very active voting Republicans –

Two- If you do enough reading and talking to people regarding the new 5th district, somewhere between 70-72% of the voting population is in Bergen County.  The remaining 26%- 28% are in the new Warren, Sussex and Passaic Counties.  And- the Republicans come out to VOTE  by heavy margins.

Three- If all of you can guarantee me that we can get 100% (alright- 95%) of all REGISTERED Democrats to come out and vote so that our Democratic Candidate could unseat Garrett- I will personally ask Steve Rothman to reconsider.

Four:  Anyone who is Jewish doesn’t stand a chance against the ultra – conservative Republicans who still refer to a Jewish candidate as “Jew Boy” or “the Heb”.  I am a Jew, and these people still refer to those of my religion in exactly those words- If I have had to hear them repeatedly throughout my lifetime, then by gosh, you are finally going to read those words.

However, in the real world, the best we could do with the new 5th, is to run a candidate against Garrett so that the Democrats could finally expose the man for what he truly is.  By doing that, we can severely dent his suit of armor and knock him off his horse.  However, he would probably still be standing.

The next time around in 2014, we could run a candidate against him, and then we could actually stand a chance in winning because he doesn’t have a steed under him anymore and his armor is destroyed.  Why—-because we kept up the attacks.

In a perfect world, Rothman should have run, even if he fell on the sword.

In the real world, that would never happen — Neither Rothman or Pascrell are willing to fall on the sword.

Based upon my experience in getting the Democrats out to vote, with all the anger amongst the Democrats towards the President and Congress, we are going to have a heck of a time getting them out to vote period!

I know because I have already spoken with people who are going to stay home if it’s a battle between Obama and Romney- that’s how disgusted the Dems are- Or some want a different Democratic candidate for President.

We, as leaders of the Democrats in Bergen County, will have our job cut out for us in just getting people to the polls in November to vote Democratic.

In the perfect scenario, regardless of who won in the 5th district, the constituents would have a Congressman/woman who would fight for them and represent them.

In the real world, that probably won’t happen for the 5th district- my district!

In the perfect scenario, regardless of who won in the 9th district, the constituents would have a Congressman who would fight for them and represent them, be it Rothman or Pascrell.

In the real world, that will happen for the 9th district!

So by the time Rothman called me to ask for my support in my (now) divided township,  I already knew what I would say– because I had already realized he had no other choice in the real world.

Comments (8)

  1. carolh

    This diary really explains the demographics of this fight in a way the makes Rothman’s decision easier to understand, even if it is sorely disappointing to those of us who had mistakenly thought the cavalry had arrived.

    Reply
  2. 12mileseastofTrenton

    Paul Aronshon held Garrett to 55% in 2006.  In what was a more rural, more Republican district.  Rothman could have made up most of the difference from the over 20% of his current district included in the new fifth.  Not to mention that he would be better known and financed.

    Moreover, people who wouldn’t vote for a candidate based on religious bigotry aren’t likely to vote for any Democrat.

    With all due respect, the argument doesn’t hold water.

    Reply
  3. Matthew Jordan

    Rothman’s camp was more concerned about holding the seat than beating Garrett. In a high turn out presidential year he can win this seat.  It’s the low turnout affairs (and if Garrett were to lose, it would probably be a much more moderate Bergen County Republican) that Rothman was worried about.  

    I’m not sure what this diary says outside of confirming Rothman running from the real fight Democrats should be taking on in 2012.  

    And why such an emphasis on religion? If Garrett were to use the types of anti-semitic attacks you describe above doesn’t that make him more vulnerable?  I think so.  

    Reply
  4. William Weber (WjcW)

    Obviously no one ever challenged the actions in the past when Cities were divided and it probably would cost millions to take the decision on, even though, it is probably illegal what was done.

    There was a big legal fight, and the supreme court found some way to justify this, even though there is language that says cities can’t be split into more than 2 ( or 3, can’t remember) districts, but the map exceeded the constitutionally perscribed number and the supreme court allowed it.

    Fyi.

    Reply
  5. liz (Post author)

    I have read everyone’s comments-  However in the perfect scenario people are going to come out in droves in the Presidential election and vote for Obama regardless of the Republican candidate.

    In the real world- many people are disappointed in Obama and depending upon who his opponent is – Obama will have a real fight on his hands.  Being on the coat tails of the president may not be such a good thing in regards to the Voters come this November in the newly formed 5th.

    Sorry I stand by my opinion as I am certain you all stand by yours.

    Reply

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