Monmouth University Poll: Holt leads, but it’s close

Monmouth University just released a new poll of the 12th Congressional District (NJ12) and they have Rush Holt on track to win re-election — but it’s a close race:

In the election for New Jersey’s 12th Congressional District, Rush Holt faces his toughest challenge in a decade.  The Monmouth University Poll finds the incumbent Democrat leading Republican Scott Sipprelle by 51% to 46% among likely voters in this district.

New Jersey’s 12th District stretches across the geographical waist of the state.  Holt leads by 63% to 33% in the western part of the district, which includes much of Mercer County and part of Hunterdon County.  Sipprelle, on the other hand, holds a 58% to 38% advantage in the eastern, Monmouth County, portion of the district.  However, in the central portion, comprised mainly of Middlesex County and part of one Somerset County town, it’s a much closer race – 50% for Holt to 46% for Sipprelle.

“This is not unfamiliar territory for Holt, as his first two races were won by very narrow margins.  However, redistricting in 2002 added more Democratic voters to the 12th and gave Holt comfortable wins.  This year, though, he has to contend with the national anti-Democrat, anti-incumbent wave,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Holt is our best New Jersey Representative in my opinion so if you have an opportunity to volunteer for him this should motivate you.

The margin of error is 3.9% since there are 690 likely voters in the sample.  

Comments (3)

  1. Jay Lassiter
  2. Scott Weingart

    Holt is trailing badly among voters ages 18-44, but leading among voters ages 45-59 and 60+. This doesn’t make very much sense to me.


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