Adler-Runyan race is a toss-up

Swing State Project points us to this research poll of NJ3 (PDF) for the Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics.

Professor Redlawsk tells us on his blog:

Still, as the release below shows, Adler is in reasonable position for an incumbent Democrat in a marginal seat given the prevailing winds of 2010. He seems to be so because most likely voters in the district actually say they prefer experience over an outsider and because he is seen somewhat more favorably than is his opponent Republican Jon Runyan.

He has a detailed discussion of the likely voter screen. The likely voter sample is 41-39-6 for Adler-Runyan-DeStafano. Adler has a nine point lead 40-31-6 with registered voters. Turnout looks to be killing Democrats, as Obama’s twitter feed suggested yesterday:

The other side is counting on you staying home this Nov. They’re counting on your silence. They are betting on your apathy. Prove them wrong

Comments (3)

  1. ken bank

    That’s not me but a TNut comment on a reactionary blog bemoaning the lack of “constitutionally certified” (except for Scott Garrett and TPartyGirl Anna Little) GOP candidates in New Jersey.

    I’ve been getting mail from the Runyan campaign everyday (literally) and it’s always negative.  He’s running against Pelosi more than against Adler, and I’d bet most voters in the district don’t even know who Pelosi is.

    There is no enthusiasm gap in this district.  Republicans are no more enthusiastic about Runyan than Democrats are about Adler. Which is why I believe this election is Adler’s to lose.  

  2. deciminyan

    Yes, I agree that Runyan is a putz, a weak candidate, and an airhead.  But don’t count him out.  He’s a popular ex-Eagle and a lot of voters would vote for him just for that.  Yet, I imagine that if Chris Myers (Adler’s last opponent) were running instead of Runyan, this race would be over with Adler being a one-term congressman.

  3. 12mileseastofTrenton

    Remember that this was a Republican seat for a long time.  So, it would not be a surprise if Runyan won, despite Adler’s Republican stance on taxes.


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