The latest New Jersey polls

We have new New Jersey polls from Quinnipiac and Rasmussen. Between the two, Chris Christie does about the same as before, and I’d say so far he is holding onto the people that elected him.  

Rasmussen has Governor Christie at a solid 51% approval with 45% disapproval. Quinnipiac has him at 44-43%.  Right or wrong, Rasmussen is consistently about six points more Republican than other pollsters, so the better Rasmussen number is just what we should expect. Quinnipiac notes especially strong support (56%-29%) in the “Shore” region.

Quinnipiac surveyed “1,461 New Jersey voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.” Rasmussen’s sample is 500 “Likely Voters” (so +/-4.5% margin of error), and I’ve complained before that with no major election approaching this is strange. However, I should note that Nate Silver doesn’t quite agree:

The bottom line is this: the sample included in Rasmussen’s polling is increasingly out of balance with that observed by almost all other pollsters. This appears to create a substantial house effect, irrespective of whether Rasmussen subsequently applies a likely voter screen.

Quinnipiac has Senator Bob Menendez at 43% approval to 38% approval, “his highest disapproval ever.” On the other hand, Rasmussen surprisingly finds Menendez’s approval at 50%(!) and disapproval at 43%. Of course, Rasmussen buries the number in a release touting NJ likely voters as split 39-39 on recalling him. Combining the two Menendez seems to be where he usually is.

President Obama is at 50-46 according to Quinnipiac. These state polls don’t give us data on Adler, the guy actually in a 2010 battle, and unfortunately, I don’t see a generic Congressional ballot either. I recommend this post by Tom Jensen on the likelihood of Democrats staying home.

On issues, Rasmussen finds strong support for salary freezes at schools and capping property taxes. Quinnipiac finds the same thing with a slightly different question, even though they also find strong liking for teachers. On the other hand, Quiniipiac found an overwhelming majority (72%) are worried about state aid cuts increasing their property taxes. Furthermore, 61% say Christie should have signed the millionaires tax, which oddly enough Rasmussen didn’t ask about. A similar number oppose increasing their own property taxes to avoid cuts to schools.

Quinnipiac asked about the Supreme Court and Judge Wallace in various ways: More people disapprove of Christie’s actions than approve, but many don’t know about the issue.

Comments (5)

  1. Jersey Shore John
  2. Hopeful (Post author)

    Comes out Friday. From Quinnipiac:


    Results of a poll of New Jersey voters, asking their opinions on whether New Jersey is a good place to live and their favorite Garden State vacation attractions, will be sent to the media, Friday, 9 A.M.

    Reply
  3. 12mileseastofTrenton

    Wrote a book in 2001 advocating privatization of social security.  Wrote for worldnet daily.  Among other things.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/

    Even he has a potential recall vote tied.

    Reply

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *