South Jersey poll

The polls are coming fast and furious. The latest is by the Richard Stockton College of NJ (conducted by Zogby) of South Jersey, which  finds:

In a head-to-head question, Republican challenger Chris Christie’s  lead over Governor Jon Corzine is only 2.7% — well within the margin of error of polling and down from approximately a lead of 7% in September’s Stockton poll.  Chris Daggett reaps 18.4% of the vote – still substantially less than the major party candidates but double the number from the previous poll…

In the race for governor 33.9% would vote for Chris Christie, 31.2% for Jon Corzine, 18.4% for Chris Daggett, and 14.6% of the voters are still unsure who they would vote for.

When I say South Jersey, I mean Legislative Districts 1-4 and 9. The poll has 800 likely voters, and as in the previous poll, Zogby’s methodology must somehow result in more undecided voters: both major candidates are way below their statewide and the southern geographic subsets in other pollsters.

I want to quote the Stockton director:

“The question statewide is from whom Daggett is pulling votes?” said Hughes Center Executive Director Sharon Schulman. “In the southern portion of the state that was polled, it appears Christie’s Republican base may be eroding as his support among GOPers dropped from 73% in September to 60% in October. Daggett is also pulling Republican votes away from Christie as we find that his support among them has jumped from 7% to 19%,” Schulman said.

Assemblyman Burzichelli told me that his running mate, Celeste Riley, would win, and the Assembly breakdowns look good here:

The poll looked at the races for General Assembly in these districts also. The margin of error is greater, however, because of the smaller subgroup size. Most notable in these results is that people are firming up who they are voting for compared to the September poll.

1st District:  McCann (R) 49%, Donohue (R) 43.5%, Albano (D) 44.1%, Milam (D) 30.1%, Not Sure 10%, Someone Else 2.8%.

2nd District: Amodeo (R) 43.6%, Polistina (R) 40.7%, Floyd (D) 29.9%, Martinez (D) 28.2%, Not Sure 19.7%, Someone Else 6%.

3rd District: Burzichelli (D) 47.1%, Riley (D) 39.2%, Villare (R) 25.7%, Lucas (R) 24.4%, Not Sure 24%, Someone Else 3.8%.

4th District: Moriarity (D) 47.3%, Collins (D) 41%, DiCicco (R) 29.4%, Lawrence (R) 28.3%. Not Sure 21.5%, Someone Else 3.8%.

9th District: Rumpf (R) 45.3%, Gove (R) 43%, Visotcky (D) 23.7%, Rue (D) 22.3%, Not Sure 29.6%, Someone Else 2.7%

So Zogby says we’re likely to lose in LD1.  

Comments (7)

  1. Hopeful (Post author)

    It will be interesting to compare Zogby’s statewide numbers to everyone else. We have been promised a PPP poll too, and extrapolating we’ll probably get at least two others.

    Reply
  2. Hopeful (Post author)

    The sample is 801 interviews with approximately 20 questions asked from 10/19/09 to 10/21/09. Samples are randomly drawn from purchased lists of registered voters.  Zogby International surveys employ sampling strategies in which selection probabilities are proportional to population size within area codes and exchanges. Cooperation rates are calculated using one of AAPOR’s approved methodologies and are comparable to other professional public-opinion surveys conducted using similar sampling strategies. Weighting by district, age, race and gender is used to adjust for non-response.  Margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points.  Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.

    Reply
  3. firstamend07

    Not sure who this poll had questioned but the results do not match what is happening in the 1st District.

    No way is McCann leading.He is closer to 4th then 1st.

    Albano will win ,the real horse race is between Donohue and Milam .All the money is on the side of the two Democrats.

    If I was a betting person I would bet on a Democratic sweep.

    Chrisite is not getting the support he expected down in this District. Quite a few Lonegan supporters are going to Daggett  and they want to send a message to the Republican establishment,  ” Don’t ever dare take us for granted!”.    

    Reply

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